TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,256,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,956,764

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,256,584 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 354 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes0c349,999$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5308622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes1c254,925$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.61319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c199,692$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.72283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+175.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes1c163,316$2,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,186.43147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-85.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c160,000$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47828436.3%103 W · 181 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4947…4f22backed Yes5c158,426$7,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,233.3250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes1c141,131$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.1370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4314…bb3dbacked Yes0c114,000$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes6c104,615$5,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,787.7118435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes1c95,571$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.4120542%86 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes1c84,695$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.46454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes4c81,717$3,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,211.7523447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6207…5259backed Yes0c78,667$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes1c73,659$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.986124.6%15 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7c0…55ffbacked Yes0c67,400$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.6119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes0c57,793$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1421227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes2c57,527$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.9216226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes2c54,438$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.4422434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes3c41,915$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.94323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe29f…2853backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81a6…9c48backed Yes5c37,299$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9553834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa86c…6ec8backed Yes5c34,893$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.395032%16 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid-0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes4c34,202$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.983511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5607…d320backed Yes7c33,331$2,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,307.92728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+78.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e3c…7efbbacked Yes2c33,279$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.15635.7%20 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes5c31,652$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.7183147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…ba65backed Yes6c31,520$2,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,036.373528.6%10 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes1c30,966$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.7933328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes7c30,145$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.15724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…f7d8backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes7c28,016$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.71175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a06…41c9backed Yes3c27,395$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.651127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes7c24,929$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.29283.6%1 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Yes1c24,778$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.222626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+194.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Yes1c23,750$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.0726650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Yes8c23,294$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.197255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfc4…95a3backed Yes4c23,170$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.412512%3 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+98%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfe…97d8backed Yes0c22,266$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x741b…0468backed Yes5c22,165$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.652313%3 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+156.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes1c21,309$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.8312827.3%35 W · 93 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3f4…05e9backed Yes6c21,250$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.57339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick9cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb014…b3fabacked Yes1c20,830$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.96323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+184.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes4c20,578$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.478428.6%24 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes7c20,000$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+601.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8182…3732backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c17…cf02backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Yes4c20,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7206639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb704…dc1ebacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca9…558dbacked Yes0c19,826$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbe6…2770backed Yes2c19,772$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.92195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes7c19,620$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.943540%14 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+71.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes1c19,503$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.7926331.6%83 W · 180 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes5c18,982$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.6147738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes2c18,325$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.216036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Yes1c17,331$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22025744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2af5…a3cdbacked Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe72f…ba44backed Yes1c16,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x858d…1047backed Yes6c15,204$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.442516%4 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b8…ba77backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes2c14,203$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.4113935.3%49 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe83…db76backed Yes0c14,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes4c13,838$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.768818.2%16 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd016…06adbacked Yes0c13,718$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes1c13,498$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0813217.4%23 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+104.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c13,100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa144…40fabacked Yes0c12,333$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95d9backed Yes0c12,311$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c12,092$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.851769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf3…eac3backed Yes4c12,080$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes0c11,755$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.027750.6%39 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ed…f602backed Yes0c11,341$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2468…cd51backed Yes0c11,113$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf728…6552backed Yes0c10,321$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Yes7c10,004$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.678035%28 W · 52 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30258%2 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-54%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ceb…0f9ebacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d2…034bbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6254…08b6backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc76d…2c25backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5488…4a9ebacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd936…9af9backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb8…3acbbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb194…40e1backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a5…6112backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f8c…d699backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c2f…d7fbbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228c…d770backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d5…6240backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…8c68backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e51…e8adbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0839…698ebacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d8…ad91backed Yes6c10,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006045%27 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9809…108fbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b4…8376backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992f…c40abacked Yes0c9,994$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Yes8c9,862$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.916338.1%24 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbea…51bbbacked Yes0c9,738$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.48100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ca0…a080backed Yes0c9,667$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa215…ea50backed Yes0c9,667$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes5c9,597$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.422213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-56.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.