TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,968,300
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,771,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,968,300 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 333 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c1,492,252$2,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.56319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c1…51aabacked Yes0c1,000,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c810,718$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.141769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed Yes0c358,932$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.9370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes0c200,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa967…a002backed Yes1c160,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c145,164$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.76303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c00…cddfbacked Yes0c116,639$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600b…42dcbacked Yes0c104,195$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.02323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+160.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cf9…0d5dbacked Yes0c92,690$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d0a…2008backed Yes0c92,000$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes0c70,112$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.67160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c66,200$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.6323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c55,420$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.816226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee1f…9cedbacked Yes2c52,208$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.17140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x858d…1047backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002516%4 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes0c40,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-81.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes0c40,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes2c38,941$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.7183147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7b2…f558backed Yes3c36,764$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes1c35,923$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.29734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c32,424$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.27323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17dc…ec55backed Yes5c32,221$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe959…7c7abacked Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b36…fd74backed Yes1c26,210$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.382231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x741b…0468backed Yes2c26,052$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.672313%3 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+156.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfc4…95a3backed Yes3c22,749$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.722512%3 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+98%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc69e…c04ebacked Yes0c21,410$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes2c21,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.58818.2%16 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes1c20,963$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.71557.3%4 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a9e…7607backed Yes1c20,699$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.5980%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21a9…7f37backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes4c16,872$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.613540%14 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+71.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…d74cbacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes1c13,852$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.81110%0 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7489…7f27backed Yes1c13,500$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes2c13,491$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.013119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes1c13,000$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1598622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes1c12,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Yes2c11,957$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.138343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes1c10,930$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+208.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf31f…e63dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ed…ddadbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6e…8d46backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa588…dad8backed Yes4c10,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3701225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Yes4c10,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39030743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aad…18f4backed Yes4c10,000$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.927627.6%21 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Yes3c9,951$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.5318140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Yes3c9,218$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.466624.2%16 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+81.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe686…13cbbacked Yes4c8,565$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.61915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-52.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Yes2c8,266$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9510061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93eb…93cbbacked Yes4c7,851$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes3c7,218$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.9420542%86 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9811…5de5backed Yes4c7,000$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+346.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc410…f056backed Yes0c6,897$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85a7…30f2backed Yes0c6,833$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c6,568$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.79355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62e…9524backed Yes0c6,300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes3c6,213$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.741811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24fb…50cfbacked Yes0c6,167$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed3a…483abacked Yes3c5,974$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x021e…984ebacked Yes5c5,972$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef7…759fbacked Yes0c5,967$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Yes3c5,804$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7910434.6%36 W · 68 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa35e…5208backed Yes0c5,800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0167…0d88backed Yes5c5,552$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506344.4%28 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf763…414fbacked Yes5c5,436$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2451637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes4c5,289$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0113217.4%23 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+104.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes1c5,133$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.723815.8%6 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes4c5,062$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.65175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+110.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a3…12b4backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ba2…418abacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes4c5,000$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20524351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed Yes4c4,577$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.025129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3f4…05e9backed Yes3c4,500$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.05339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick9cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5426…1339backed Yes2c4,348$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-33.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5d0a…1936backed Yes3c3,846$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes3c3,795$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1722434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes2c3,776$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes1c3,741$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.72283.6%1 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes5c3,707$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.996124.6%15 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb014…b3fabacked Yes4c3,587$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.37323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+184.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes5c3,506$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.512634.1%43 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7302…4557backed Yes3c3,458$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bf…2c27backed Yes5c3,282$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150378.1%3 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c3,017$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1452828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8469…f3aebacked Yes1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes3c3,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8313547.4%64 W · 71 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes4c3,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbf…f580backed Yes2c2,987$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.45293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+229.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85cb…f098backed Yes1c2,635$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0802…81cabacked Yes4c2,600$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes2c2,563$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.436124.6%15 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62fa…ad7abacked Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x427e…c418backed Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb540…b343backed Yes4c2,380$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.951612.5%2 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+577.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes4c2,370$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0810434.6%36 W · 68 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.