TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,516,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,467,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,516,223 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c1,564,012$4,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,837.18319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c588,907$7,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,782.85283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+175.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c326,872$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.731769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa967…a002backed Yes0c250,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c248,910$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.7716226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed Yes0c178,932$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.8670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c150,008$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.47323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c128,499$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.4928436.3%103 W · 181 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c116,197$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.66219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59db…c353backed Yes1c103,000$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.123125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes0c101,107$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.86160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f5…e5e7backed Yes0c86,867$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.73110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd64b…d37cbacked Yes1c85,925$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Yes2c82,250$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.752626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+194.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes1c82,207$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.77454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c79,909$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.76303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes1c74,799$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374110%0 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes1c72,838$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.573815.8%6 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x05c5…1d0abacked Yes1c68,061$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.34922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+228.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes1c61,779$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.96147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-85.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes1c59,611$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.37100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes1c57,266$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.2620542%86 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes1c51,201$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.6160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c50,000$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes1c49,190$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.4650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes1c47,962$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.23185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+208.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes1c40,690$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.391811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cce…8713backed Yes0c40,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes1c36,500$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26383147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes1c32,000$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55fd…2c99backed Yes1c30,918$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3532321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-81.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0a…2008backed Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c30,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2308818.2%16 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb014…b3fabacked Yes1c26,660$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+184.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600b…42dcbacked Yes1c25,094$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+160.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5263…934dbacked Yes2c25,000$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes1c25,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-79.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdd…6318backed Yes1c22,727$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5488…4a9ebacked Yes1c20,146$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.46170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a9e…7607backed Yes1c20,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12080%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe959…7c7abacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb8…3acbbacked Yes1c20,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbea…51bbbacked Yes1c20,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a5…6112backed Yes1c20,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bf7…393bbacked Yes1c18,182$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick1cpaid+792.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8225…162fbacked Yes1c18,069$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d5…6240backed Yes1c17,949$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.54180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4142…1853backed Yes1c17,120$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.08837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick21cpaid-23.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c15,939$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.88329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b8…ba77backed Yes0c15,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Yes1c14,112$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.013243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7471…a6dabacked Yes0c13,974$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.74150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes1c13,685$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8516036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8182…3732backed Yes0c11,913$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.22180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa469…42a7backed Yes0c11,333$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes1c10,500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.58622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbf…f580backed Yes1c10,055$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.45293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+229.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ceb…0f9ebacked Yes0c10,001$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.01180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6084…b21bbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d2…034bbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6254…08b6backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…43dcbacked Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc76d…2c25backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb194…40e1backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf31f…e63dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d15…f76dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9f…2b77backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9809…108fbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb29f…b308backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad6b…3681backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c2f…d7fbbacked Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29c…7270backed Yes2c10,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f86…6ca2backed Yes2c10,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752f…9332backed Yes1c9,487$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d4a…2215backed Yes1c9,000$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2117248.3%83 W · 89 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes1c8,740$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5313217.4%23 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+104.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf614…f1d4backed Yes2c8,438$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86c…6ec8backed Yes1c7,894$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.945032%16 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid-0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x746d…f1f9backed Yes1c7,804$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f2…0a1dbacked Yes2c7,522$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…cbf5backed Yes1c7,406$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9811…5de5backed Yes1c7,393$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.15166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+346.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x799e…965bbacked Yes0c7,367$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b0…c3bdbacked Yes1c7,320$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.99200%0 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb903…4e4cbacked Yes1c7,200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf041…034abacked Yes1c7,092$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.83140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde17…17c1backed Yes0c6,780$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c6,701$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.211061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409d…3546backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf8f…888ebacked Yes0c6,367$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes1c6,207$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016346%75 W · 88 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes0c6,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27170%0 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0fa…27c2backed Yes1c5,971$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-78.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d2…941fbacked Yes0c5,950$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd03…5ad9backed Yes1c5,857$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf3a…e41fbacked Yes1c5,749$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2288…b937backed Yes0c5,633$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661c…6390backed Yes2c5,616$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.