TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,998,043
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,870,753

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,998,043 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes1c6,653,936$41,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,554.74319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes1c1,378,595$11,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,231.31160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…c7f9backed Yes0c1,154,796$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.821729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c1,067,794$2,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801.6329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f5…e5e7backed Yes0c970,296$2,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,440.59110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes0c908,359$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,816.7222434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c827,604$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.591769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes1c772,975$5,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,147.44100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c412,807$3,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,029.95219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Yes0c375,333$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1265527.3%15 W · 40 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Yes0c352,481$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0938128.4%23 W · 58 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa967…a002backed Yes0c350,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c346,968$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.81283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+175.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Yes1c264,000$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8482540%10 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Yes0c250,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes0c245,647$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.5321227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c237,386$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.33323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600b…42dcbacked Yes1c210,744$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.61323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+160.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes0c200,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60011142.3%47 W · 64 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Yes0c187,515$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.035851.7%30 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Yes0c170,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes0c170,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd63…75c0backed Yes1c166,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71b3…a5d6backed Yes1c145,000$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0153046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c130,100$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes0c127,101$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.13205%1 W · 19 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+170.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c126,510$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.5716226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd57d…80d0backed Yes1c113,333$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7a…11c2backed Yes1c113,159$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86c…6ec8backed Yes1c111,131$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.25032%16 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid-0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0d5…6240backed Yes0c110,488$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.44180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6084…b21bbacked Yes0c109,991$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.98140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b8…ba77backed Yes0c105,000$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdde…c019backed Yes1c100,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes0c97,000$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd936…9af9backed Yes0c95,231$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.2160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f8c…d699backed Yes0c95,139$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.78150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes0c94,434$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.4783147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Yes1c86,666$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5801816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-71.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…43dcbacked Yes0c86,585$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.86140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9629…b148backed Yes0c84,337$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6254…08b6backed Yes0c84,205$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.02160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153b…68ddbacked Yes1c83,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-44.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5488…4a9ebacked Yes0c82,902$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.71170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9809…108fbacked Yes0c81,643$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.01150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes1c80,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc76d…2c25backed Yes0c79,889$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.53150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2591…b527backed Yes0c78,069$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.714628.3%13 W · 33 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb8…3acbbacked Yes0c75,166$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.24170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad6b…3681backed Yes0c73,216$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.86140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e65…6c95backed Yes0c73,206$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Yes1c71,429$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015944%70 W · 89 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c1…54b0backed Yes1c71,414$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.970%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes1c70,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-79.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed Yes0c66,840$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.687131%22 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fe3…f118backed Yes1c66,776$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.88650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+58.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fd4…5830backed Yes0c66,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa9f…1981backed Yes0c66,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdebd…a8ecbacked Yes1c65,341$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3e9cbacked Yes1c65,000$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf041…034abacked Yes0c64,299$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.05140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed6f…73a8backed Yes1c63,470$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd2d…f832backed Yes1c62,943$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2b…7b3fbacked Yes1c62,729$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x010f…6a38backed Yes1c62,700$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a27…1a24backed Yes1c62,571$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes1c62,149$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.84110%0 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb29f…b308backed Yes0c61,712$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.59140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a5…6112backed Yes0c61,287$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.8150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8182…3732backed Yes0c60,034$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.21180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Yes1c60,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005957.6%34 W · 25 L+7.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f49…7ce8backed Yes1c60,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4138…2a24backed Yes1c60,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb194…40e1backed Yes0c58,891$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.67170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f76…6e84backed Yes1c55,462$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cda…351abacked Yes1c55,265$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.8630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd822…82d7backed Yes1c53,429$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed Yes0c52,208$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4270%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5424…1bdabacked Yes1c51,143$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes1c50,203$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.628622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Yes1c50,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6565…2c02backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b4…ec9cbacked Yes1c50,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228c…d770backed Yes0c50,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15014837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0cd…7014backed Yes1c50,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Yes1c48,500$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.52626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+194.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed9…fe4fbacked Yes1c46,938$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.5720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8652…3ce4backed Yes0c45,343$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.0370%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb912…3f41backed Yes1c42,429$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22c2…aababacked Yes1c42,143$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7043…1425backed Yes0c41,344$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cb…119bbacked Yes1c41,286$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0b…d1c9backed Yes1c40,407$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a11…4820backed Yes1c40,143$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ceb…0f9ebacked Yes0c40,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9161…622ebacked Yes1c40,000$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.593132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7024…0e22backed Yes1c34,522$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a4…75c1backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018658.1%108 W · 78 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.