TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,853,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,693,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,853,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 352 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c2,182,504$6,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,835.96319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes0c759,090$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.9205%1 W · 19 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+170.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6207…5259backed Yes0c411,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Yes0c367,799$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.367951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac9…9678backed Yes1c334,688$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.952040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Yes1c265,407$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.235940.7%24 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c223,286$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.2128436.3%103 W · 181 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c218,643$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.87323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600b…42dcbacked Yes0c173,337$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.64323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+160.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c167,151$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.6116226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes1c163,759$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50016737.7%63 W · 104 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Yes1c155,705$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.574852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa967…a002backed Yes1c149,999$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes1c139,912$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.93160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c139,479$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380.79283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+175.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c134,366$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.791769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed Yes0c128,932$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…268bbacked Yes1c124,868$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x737e…bee0backed Yes2c110,928$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,204.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x858d…1047backed Yes1c103,274$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.292516%4 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes1c100,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick26cpaid-20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x387c…a6dbbacked Yes1c93,142$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.85425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c87,084$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.67329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Yes1c85,885$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6245523.6%13 W · 42 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-35.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c84,322$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.1321227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x060c…dc6dbacked Yes1c82,042$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes1c81,551$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.21734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…43dcbacked Yes1c80,791$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.36140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a5…6112backed Yes1c80,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c76,569$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.28219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Yes1c75,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60015944%70 W · 89 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f8c…d699backed Yes1c74,035$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.28150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86c…6ec8backed Yes1c73,584$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.745032%16 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid-0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b10…3763backed Yes0c69,963$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09f8…e156backed Yes1c68,553$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.162737%10 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+123.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c67,300$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.4303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2622…be6abacked Yes1c62,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes1c58,000$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4081811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c57,500$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9811…5de5backed Yes1c54,595$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.55166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+346.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc76d…2c25backed Yes1c50,798$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.63150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8182…3732backed Yes1c50,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9809…108fbacked Yes1c50,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb29f…b308backed Yes1c50,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes1c48,833$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.3150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes1c47,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460557.3%4 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes1c46,403$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.111142.3%47 W · 64 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d5…6240backed Yes1c43,594$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.75180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5488…4a9ebacked Yes1c41,599$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.39170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb8…3acbbacked Yes1c41,243$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.17170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes1c40,847$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.91185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+208.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x752f…9332backed Yes1c40,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad6b…3681backed Yes1c40,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9e…eddcbacked Yes3c38,878$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.951145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+69.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7471…a6dabacked Yes1c37,795$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.54150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5426…1339backed Yes1c36,445$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4602714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-33.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6084…b21bbacked Yes1c35,976$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.33140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0774…99febacked Yes1c35,000$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4352128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes2c33,232$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d6…d648backed Yes2c32,737$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.458536.5%31 W · 54 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes0c32,061$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.55160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6254…08b6backed Yes0c30,237$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.03160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30258%2 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-54%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf041…034abacked Yes1c30,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Yes1c29,600$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.6922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3537…56eabacked Yes2c29,127$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.021323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3e9cbacked Yes1c27,000$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c26,261$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.07667.6%5 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a38…82f5backed Yes1c25,005$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.541926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa71a…e4e2backed Yes7c24,207$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7002540%10 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31c6…6657backed Yes1c23,571$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes0c23,500$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479744.3%43 W · 54 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Yes1c22,400$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.216545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab2…aba9backed Yes2c22,391$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.84520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a05…ccd5backed Yes1c21,357$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Yes1c20,143$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.2925744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228c…d770backed Yes1c20,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1387…fcadbacked Yes0c20,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d2…034bbacked Yes1c20,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a50…a045backed Yes2c20,000$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e65…6c95backed Yes1c20,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes1c19,863$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes1c19,563$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.076124.6%15 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2626…93abbacked Yes1c18,000$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x741b…0468backed Yes0c17,935$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.742313%3 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+156.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd936…9af9backed Yes1c17,634$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.99160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes1c17,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10515044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d3b…b511backed Yes0c17,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Yes1c16,447$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.742556%14 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c15,685$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.662213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-56.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b5…8541backed Yes1c15,525$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.974837.5%18 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c5c…c842backed Yes1c15,353$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.152425%6 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf967…8cd4backed Yes1c15,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1055234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Yes2c15,000$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.398035%28 W · 52 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Yes0c14,983$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.137741.6%32 W · 45 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c14,500$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.658818.2%16 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f65…0075backed Yes1c14,300$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c2…110bbacked Yes1c14,286$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c41…42ebbacked Yes1c14,250$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1143531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+63.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.