TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb358…e547

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
121
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NHL, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 56 out of 100; worst WNBA at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST5250%26 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aaron Judge win the 2025 AL MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+50.2%+$7.54
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$74
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.75
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.04
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.79
White Sox vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.88
Orioles vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Giants vs. Piratesbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,924Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$1,393.14
Guardians vs. Metsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,488Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,488
Padres vs. Diamondbacksbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$368
Cardinals vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$185
Blue Jays vs. Rockiesbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$687Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$323.39
Reds vs. Cubsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$309.99
Yankees vs. Rangersbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$230
Guardians vs. Metsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.55
Twins vs. Tigersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$819Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$818.76
Astros vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.22
Giants vs. Piratesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$390.03
Orioles vs. Philliesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$845Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT+77.5%+$654.99
Mariners vs. Astrosbacked Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$549.99
Rangers vs. White Soxbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$479.99
Cubs vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$440
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST2755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$67.2
Spread: Warriors (-1.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$64.4
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+35.1%+$26
Spread: Celtics (-9.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$346Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+89.2%+$308.73
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$567Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+76.4%+$432.99
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Trail Blazers vs. Bullsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+63.9%+$156
Heat vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+69.5%+$164
Rockets vs. Magicbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+72.4%+$168
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+104.1%+$204
Celtics vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+69.5%+$205
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Spurs vs. Raptorsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$716Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+39.7%+$284
Thunder vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$576Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+38.9%+$224
Spread: Lakers (-5.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$328.61
Magic vs. Lakersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+277.4%+$323.4
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,363Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+54.1%+$737.5
Thunder vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Cavaliers vs. Bullsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$65
Lakers vs. Celticsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$78.4
Spread: Lakers (-14.5)backed Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+117.4%+$27
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+96.1%+$49
Hawks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$232
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+88.7%+$47
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+50.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Kingsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+61.3%+$53.2
Panthers vs. Islandersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Red Wings vs. Senatorsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+143.9%+$24.26
Ducks vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+112%+$15.85
Oilers vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,518Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+34.8%+$527.91
All 5 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-5.5)backed Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+96.1%+$97.14
Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhornsbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20.66
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Vanderbilt Commodoresbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+29.9%+$11.43
USC Trojans vs. UCLA Bruinsbacked USC Trojans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$78.51
New Mexico Lobos vs. Nevada Wolf Packbacked New Mexico Lobos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$55.52
All 5 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Sep 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$27.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+42.9%+$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$537Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$537.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$81.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fever vs Sparksbacked Fever · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.