College Football · resolved market
Spread: California (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a41503f5e286024df93fab3e633ff3bbc7940f36b82f07d5783b890db321f1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Carolinaof California, North Carolina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb790…8389backed California | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked North Carolina | 50c | 722.22$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.11 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Carolina | 53c | 715.6$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.33 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed California | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…e547backed California | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked North Carolina | 52c | 43.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed North Carolina | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…c6bfbacked North Carolina | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…6821backed California | 50c | 22.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed North Carolina | 53c | 19.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: California (-8.5)this page
- North Carolina vs. CaliforniaCalifornia won
- North Carolina vs. California: O/U 46.5Under won
- O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: California (-10.5)North Carolina won
- Spread: California (-11.5)North Carolina won
- Spread: California (-7.5)North Carolina won
- Spread: California (-9.5)North Carolina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.