TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,765,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,474,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,765,478 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed Yes71c109,262$77,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,224.882729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes72c87,891$63,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,759.37933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes77c83,885$64,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,013.186737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No35c45,642$16,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,111.24325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes49c35,067$17,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,860.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-59.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae23…142ebacked Yes13c34,215$4,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,626.845822.4%13 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90a7…9e54backed Yes66c28,448$18,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,768.651241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked No27c26,920$7,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,368.987020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No30c23,755$7,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,167.8240712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No39c23,218$8,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,981.663627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes61c23,066$14,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,062.435554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes60c20,285$12,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,102.098038.8%31 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes73c19,123$13,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,182.551421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick49cpaid-69.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2b63…1147backed Yes74c18,716$13,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,944.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c8…53a9backed Yes5c18,407$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,548.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,485.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3fbb…42d6backed No26c17,801$4,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,629.471711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid+154.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes16c17,321$2,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,587.914216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x926d…635ebacked Yes70c16,386$11,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,916.634100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes72c16,266$11,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,633.797337%27 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6204…421abacked Yes77c16,028$12,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,663.883020%6 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-73.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xcac9…200bbacked Yes70c15,518$10,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,669.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-64.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No27c15,010$4,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,005.2634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb357…b99cbacked Yes55c15,007$8,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,809.991258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes77c14,585$11,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,368.868543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c14,542$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.166291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes62c14,209$8,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,392.993043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Yes71c12,516$8,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,628.121526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.24per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Yes72c12,489$8,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,539.63560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Yes71c12,450$8,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,671.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes51c11,875$6,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,800.99887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.43per pick45cpaid+119.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes68c11,723$7,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,740.531936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f0b…7c10backed Yes18c11,281$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,224.02911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de2…e6c9backed Yes14c10,844$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,314.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+609.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae9…5ff8backed No10c10,264$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b30…c01abacked Yes70c10,209$7,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,102.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x198a…3ca3backed Yes59c10,000$5,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,134.521573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+42%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207540%30 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes67c9,868$6,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,218.961464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4822…4fa7backed Yes9c9,797$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,933.83616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+89.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes57c9,590$5,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,155.791936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-43.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4913…4e41backed No5c9,563$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes70c9,478$6,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,800.95520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-71.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c3e…8af2backed Yes76c9,250$7,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,203.15425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-67.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7160…cce2backed No10c9,240$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes65c9,116$5,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,195.9625837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ca…3b87backed Yes11c9,069$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,069.13943.6%17 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+65.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a93…9c7fbacked No5c8,841$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes69c8,739$6,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,715.796716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed Yes59c8,711$5,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,605.767948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes57c8,181$4,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,524.5911855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3f…1a6fbacked Yes61c8,165$4,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,194.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9d1…6194backed No10c8,060$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa881…cd20backed Yes64c7,638$4,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.981650%8 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+50.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x0778…1276backed Yes72c7,603$5,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,155.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes74c7,326$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.361250%6 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes68c6,849$4,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,217.925653.6%30 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes77c6,666$5,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.392347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes61c6,494$3,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.8714339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x251e…81bfbacked Yes10c6,474$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,829.471216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+42.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes69c6,442$4,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.22040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x313d…4b1abacked Yes67c6,296$4,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b62…b97cbacked Yes69c6,242$4,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x155e…056cbacked Yes11c6,221$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,562.53238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed No3c6,200$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-62.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04fc…0e31backed Yes76c6,159$4,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.24520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f98…d8e4backed Yes6c6,069$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,689.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+433.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79f3…d803backed Yes66c6,016$3,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,073.211172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4696…1024backed No2c5,905$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+65.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf909…b5afbacked Yes6c5,653$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,287.46560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+310.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df1…ea12backed Yes76c5,500$4,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-56.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No28c5,486$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.64944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked No3c5,388$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.94348.8%3 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c5,329$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.092522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x396e…f075backed Yes1c5,135$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,068.24250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick1cpaid+3,746.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bc8…3627backed Yes9c5,071$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,607.882343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+90.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked No7c5,050$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.341010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-86.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes1c5,050$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,019.132920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52f…bf2ebacked Yes11c5,032$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,488.17825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+115.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4b…541bbacked Yes69c5,000$3,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes70c5,000$3,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.812965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a01…7c0abacked Yes78c5,000$3,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.01520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-74.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No2c5,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.996931.9%22 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99c9backed Yes63c4,805$3,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes69c4,606$3,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.334969.4%34 W · 15 L+9.0wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes63c4,587$2,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.16850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x418f…44fabacked Yes74c4,500$3,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5018…6108backed Yes68c4,405$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.29666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc589…0bd6backed Yes77c4,292$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ba…b283backed No5c4,264$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.24540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6430…d6e7backed No23c4,255$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.511414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-80.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90b8…8665backed No1c4,249$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1577…93b1backed Yes78c4,248$3,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb200…8163backed Yes71c4,216$2,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes70c4,191$2,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.2611850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No26c4,142$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.2326312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fbb…2779backed Yes69c4,110$2,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcba1…1734backed No10c3,944$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2008…0877backed Yes65c3,809$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,335.19666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed No6c3,795$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.955825.9%15 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed Yes70c3,750$2,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.91464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.