TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,460,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,475,605

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,460,051 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x564f…7034backed Yes1c265,550$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,424.664216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c210,511$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.352920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae23…142ebacked Yes1c124,533$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8805822.4%13 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c85,640$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.396291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8283…29aebacked Yes0c73,810$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a52…6d47backed Yes1c53,128$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.1812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick2cpaid+220.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes1c46,446$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.9780%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d84…e174backed Yes1c31,268$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf842…d1bdbacked Yes1c29,821$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c29,479$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.252560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c24,473$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.362522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96f4…edc5backed Yes0c20,140$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes0c20,081$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6424315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1953…5170backed Yes1c19,842$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.841010%1 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-74.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb7…f680backed Yes1c18,995$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.95450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3be…f3adbacked Yes1c18,890$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.3340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0640…4c5cbacked Yes1c16,337$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.47110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x251e…81bfbacked Yes3c16,314$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.231216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+42.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb201…a522backed Yes1c16,165$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb980…62e6backed Yes0c16,142$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6543…ecbabacked Yes1c15,893$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid+65%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbb…42d6backed Yes1c14,988$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.341711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid+154.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes0c14,941$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.82933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes0c14,245$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.01254%1 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c14,244$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.24240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x438b…1f72backed Yes1c14,094$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f0b…7c10backed Yes1c13,397$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.46911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd06…4f1bbacked Yes0c11,745$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x014e…5e58backed Yes2c11,454$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab52…6c65backed Yes1c11,290$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa005…da58backed Yes0c10,999$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7227…80cebacked Yes1c10,777$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c10,299$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.21754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c40…445cbacked Yes1c10,072$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes1c9,968$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.052913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-74.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4822…4fa7backed Yes4c9,691$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+89.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes1c9,094$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.621816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-54.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c6…8019backed Yes0c9,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.421010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-85.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1f…84aebacked Yes0c8,804$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c8,672$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.016524.6%16 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c8,488$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.132560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c8,433$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.713042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f63…b385backed Yes1c8,356$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a36…51f5backed Yes0c8,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19c1…a397backed Yes1c7,918$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf44a…4cbdbacked Yes0c7,806$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.11616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-74.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes2c7,789$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.85825.9%15 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes2c7,588$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.627337%27 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84b…9c73backed Yes1c7,146$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00e1…b679backed Yes0c7,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a6…78e9backed Yes2c6,653$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed Yes0c5,955$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.57190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a4…ab0ebacked Yes1c5,616$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9345…0d8dbacked Yes3c5,548$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes1c5,524$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,134$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.351,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a8…4a81backed Yes0c5,099$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d9…9074backed Yes1c5,057$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa04a…046abacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes1c4,906$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf20b…ae3cbacked Yes0c4,896$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c42…05babacked Yes1c4,838$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.77616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-75.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa453…086fbacked Yes1c4,770$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa03e…16b1backed Yes1c4,768$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e1…f3dfbacked Yes1c4,721$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714e…1dc5backed Yes0c4,660$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6c9…e760backed Yes0c4,660$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a2…5736backed Yes0c4,646$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cd…0d70backed Yes0c4,646$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9072…cc39backed Yes0c4,640$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a18…7af9backed Yes0c4,640$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a76…05fabacked Yes0c4,603$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86bf…498fbacked Yes0c4,603$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffe4…4beabacked Yes0c4,586$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d64…addbbacked Yes1c4,574$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d39…b8c6backed Yes1c4,553$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf920…2febbacked Yes0c4,309$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-50.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb32…bbccbacked Yes2c4,282$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-71.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4177…366bbacked Yes1c4,175$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.85128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-80%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc2…b707backed Yes1c4,067$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab44…a5b9backed Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…e4efbacked Yes1c3,911$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-43.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x433a…71e7backed Yes0c3,882$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.13616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-77.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,805$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.542792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c3,700$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c3,639$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd98b…c7ffbacked Yes1c3,636$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes0c3,630$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14420%0 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc0…a438backed Yes0c3,600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea37…f7b1backed Yes0c3,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c3,400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf081…10d3backed Yes2c3,366$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1b3…5d8abacked Yes2c3,358$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c3,205$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.04767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90e…c300backed Yes3c3,188$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed2…bb52backed Yes2c3,141$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-43.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1249…39edbacked Yes2c3,128$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c3,075$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.97486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x749f…9501backed Yes1c3,035$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.