TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,675,921
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,107,549

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,675,921 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 272 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x564f…7034backed Yes1c270,651$3,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,771.264216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes1c215,150$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.967020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c88,643$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.776291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c65,313$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.052560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c41,499$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.222920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f6…e8e6backed Yes1c36,744$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x155e…056cbacked Yes2c36,218$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.77238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x251e…81bfbacked Yes3c34,605$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.871216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+42.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c34,277$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.162522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes4c32,914$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.02634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0b…7c10backed Yes1c31,627$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.4911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x295b…2e44backed Yes3c30,999$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.11812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-75.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e06…710fbacked Yes5c29,018$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+86.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes1c28,121$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.13120%0 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes2c26,203$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.326737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8df…abd7backed Yes3c20,391$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.64229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick3cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes1c20,095$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7412033.3%40 W · 80 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a11…effabacked Yes3c17,093$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2fa…4a62backed Yes4c15,539$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.481520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00e1…b679backed Yes1c14,865$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.252725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d9…1ef4backed Yes2c14,776$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.55728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick9cpaid+260.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa489…cae0backed Yes1c14,304$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c14,163$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.476524.6%16 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes5c13,492$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.65486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60f2…b94ebacked Yes1c12,608$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd94e…7d02backed Yes2c12,550$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes16c12,397$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes2c11,426$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.6125837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa26…e1e2backed Yes2c11,361$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c11,209$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.273042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa005…da58backed Yes1c11,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed Yes1c10,996$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.791315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-60.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x745b…0b9abacked Yes1c10,961$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.41666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c10,784$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.37474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb32…bbccbacked Yes8c10,270$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.161216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-71.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes1c10,123$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.074835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa043…3e9ebacked Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100130%0 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x81ef…39c1backed Yes10c9,953$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-68.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Yes2c9,699$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes8c9,537$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.2140712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c1f…1c2abacked Yes2c9,452$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-76.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…dc47backed Yes6c8,852$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1b…72fabacked Yes1c8,846$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9290%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed1a…6c60backed Yes1c8,254$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+96.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes3c7,918$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.712913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-74.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes1c7,798$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.181816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-54.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f9…ebb3backed Yes3c7,609$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c9…ab2ebacked Yes4c7,600$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c7,535$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.582792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Yes2c7,349$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-62.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes2c7,255$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.915554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes1c6,965$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1814337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d29…5033backed Yes1c6,845$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c6,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c6,437$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.92865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c6,413$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.31,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes2c6,400$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2320130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes2c6,285$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.438543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d64…738ebacked Yes4c6,282$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c6,170$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.27811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes1c6,155$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.716428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0640…4c5cbacked Yes1c6,088$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.78110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes4c5,829$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.84767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes1c5,555$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.216931.9%22 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes4c5,465$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.98717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e55…07acbacked Yes2c5,282$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes1c5,110$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8810338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2670…fd0abacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes2c5,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04fc…0e31backed Yes8c5,000$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.96520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes5c4,953$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.69175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c4,790$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.392110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62ba…569bbacked Yes1c4,614$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.21711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes1c4,500$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x036a…10cbbacked Yes1c4,480$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+140%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05af…72f1backed Yes3c4,474$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.87728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick3cpaid+438.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4c8…8618backed Yes2c4,215$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3aa…aa5bbacked Yes1c4,133$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae23…142ebacked Yes7c4,022$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2725822.4%13 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf603…82f1backed Yes2c4,000$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.66837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3d…fea1backed Yes1c3,820$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.271822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-44.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9542…1e93backed Yes1c3,774$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6098…c419backed Yes1c3,747$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+159%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf124…d6fabacked Yes2c3,697$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.56933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2076…a338backed Yes1c3,643$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.25616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+128.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x749f…9501backed Yes1c3,529$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.646232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes1c3,500$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.82948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes1c3,500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda33…44fbbacked Yes1c3,449$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3d3…0dfabacked Yes2c3,397$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.951717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+587.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c3,298$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.26731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c80…1c3bbacked Yes1c3,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e12…8fe1backed Yes2c3,195$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e57…fc66backed Yes1c3,168$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbfc0…25f8backed Yes2c3,117$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes1c3,091$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.981612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-82.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06d6…d87fbacked Yes2c3,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ed…a5ecbacked Yes2c2,895$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8347…edb7backed Yes7c2,800$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.