TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x295b…2e44

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
74
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: World Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Premier League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-66.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.91
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$240.03
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$63.6
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$81.53
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$136.31
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.22
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.19
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+67.5%+$187.76
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$16.56
Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,393Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$1,392.94
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$257.08
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$18.6
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$803Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$802.58
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+56%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+137.1%+$133
Will there be no coalition by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$312.35
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+577.1%+$221.6
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+657.6%+$173.6
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+100.8%+$20.08
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$87.3
Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$28.01
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,120.26
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$87.35
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$45.15
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-75.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$829Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$829.11
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46.54
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$29.64
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,330Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+94.8%+$2,207.33
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,193Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,193.24
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.94
All 8 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid-40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-68.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSV win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$32.5
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. PSV end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.59
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$504Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$503.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$31.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 28-November 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,445Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,444.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.