Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9af11bdd75445870e227995cdd513d06cb53463d66a6013759afdcbcd52b5153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 9,279$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.46 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 9c | 7,094$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.32 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 6,804$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.65 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 4,357$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 10c | 3,513$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.3 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 6c | 3,438$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.69 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 14c | 3,254$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.8 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd747…8667backed Yes | 18c | 3,083$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,904$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.78 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…4e93backed Yes | 10c | 2,766$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 13c | 2,506$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.53 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…fe2ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,286$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,930$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,887$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…f46abacked Yes | 6c | 1,581$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9478backed Yes | 12c | 1,544$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,482$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,443$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.37 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,429$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,402$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,318$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.1 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…a35abacked Yes | 8c | 1,300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7708…c888backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…03c7backed Yes | 29c | 1,033$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.42 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…6083backed Yes | 10c | 957.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 16c | 913.77$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 909.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 12c | 793.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 782.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 749.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 749.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed Yes | 14c | 733.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 705$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe753…e9bcbacked Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 14c | 693.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 7c | 647$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 638.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…227bbacked Yes | 13c | 626.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 3c | 550.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…7d7fbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 76c | 500$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 4c | 498.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 16cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 8c | 485.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…5668backed Yes | 7c | 467.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 33cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…07fabacked Yes | 4c | 456.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4c…44e2backed Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 14c | 378$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 5c | 377.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 5c | 370.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 9c | 328$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 327.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed Yes | 4c | 324.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 13c | 322.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 306.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…34fcbacked Yes | 8c | 304.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 13c | 291$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3559…f7edbacked Yes | 4c | 290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…3176backed Yes | 18c | 288.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 5c | 288$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbb…77eebacked Yes | 9c | 285.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 15c | 271.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 7c | 267.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 14c | 234$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa76…d0c2backed Yes | 15c | 233.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 12c | 230.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 7c | 224.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes | 9c | 215.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 18c | 209.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 15c | 206.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8c86backed Yes | 17c | 201.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb067…c53fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 14c | 197.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 19c | 196.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 14c | 195$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 11c | 176$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 14c | 176$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed Yes | 14c | 173$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 168.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…2e44backed Yes | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…85e6backed Yes | 17c | 149.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 145.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…9b83backed Yes | 18c | 125.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51d…373bbacked Yes | 16c | 125.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…dc4fbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc133…81ebbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c07…8c2bbacked Yes | 16c | 121.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…fe42backed Yes | 11c | 120.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 17c | 120.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…ee14backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed Yes | 15c | 119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.