TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2069…c7cf

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
161
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: World Politics, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 61 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4930.6%15 W · 34 L+7.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+166.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
World Politics — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.2
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+161.2%+$805.88
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+300%+$150
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$56
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$75.12
Will Cătălin Cîrstoiu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will turnout be between 69% and 72% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will turnout be at least 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Will turnout be between 72% and 75% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$148
Will turnout be between 78% and 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+262.8%+$147.04
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of USR?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.9
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$401Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+28.5%+$114.2
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for the Defense of Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Burundian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+839.6%+$500.4
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 30% and 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$251
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 25% and 30% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.8
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+4,247.8%+$1,954
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.48
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 35% and 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$71
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.6
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+2,539.8%+$3,271.2
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$16.8
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.22
Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2941.4%12 W · 17 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+115.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100.8
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+1,150%+$230
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+75.1%+$55.77
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$44.99
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.3
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+584.9%+$119.55
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.5
Will the federal government be shut down for 4–9 days in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+41.5%+$44
US government shutdown in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$100
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.23
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on September 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$16.5
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$40.6
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$57.19
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.18
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+2,677.8%+$289.2
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.4
Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$85.5
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.15
Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT+25%+$5
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-73.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20.46
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$15.2
Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.4
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$93.81
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.02
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.94
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.8
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.2
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$18
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$8.4
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.08
All 18 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST1330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick14cpaid-19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Weather — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$65.25
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$14.24
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$31.2
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$19.34
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$32
2025 September 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$30.62
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$17.86
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$46
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+255.9%+$71.89
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$32.86
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in May 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05-1.09ºC in May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.3
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in May 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.34
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+30.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
X relaunches Vine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$46.8
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+122.2%+$16.5
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+108.3%+$52
Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro lose the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena AI trading competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$25.05
Grokipedia released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $370b and $380b on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+1,011.1%+$101.92
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $380b and $390b on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $390b and $400b on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $400b on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$169.21
All 13 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WLD hit $1.3 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62.88
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+52.5%+$24.09
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 27-November 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$72
Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 27-November 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 20-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 20-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$57
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+48.1%+$39
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$25.6
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Greta Thunberg arrested by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.2
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$248.92
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$17.2
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+37.5%+$38.89
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.5
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$85.5
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$70.8
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.75
Israel intercepts Greta Thunberg's ship before reaching Gaza?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Sep 13, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Sep 11, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 30% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$48
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+455.6%+$164
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Sep 9, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hungary win on 2025-09-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Romania win on 2025-09-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+161.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+161.1%+$37.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase October 21-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.