Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c14980495b09987db0d1b241f47c8f791b6591340f94fea066beeef139ec352
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $945,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $741,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $945,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 456 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 1c | 102,920$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.79 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…56a3backed Yes | 5c | 37,869$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…3c05backed Yes | 3c | 28,900$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 27,237$4,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,382.13 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 7c | 18,926$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.24 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…9e93backed Yes | 36c | 17,606$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 25c | 14,321$3,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,578.93 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 19c | 12,526$2,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.6 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabec…51d4backed Yes | 0c | 12,450$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…bd1bbacked Yes | 5c | 10,906$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 10,843$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.2 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 13c | 10,819$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.5 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…ca8abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 12c | 10,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…109dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,091$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0db…af73backed Yes | 32c | 9,015$2,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,889.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de8…4069backed No | 79c | 8,961$7,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72f…ea0fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,766$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…38cabacked Yes | 13c | 8,729$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 1c | 8,261$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a7…75e2backed Yes | 6c | 7,766$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 73c | 7,565$5,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,036.09 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…aa64backed Yes | 22c | 7,351$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,637.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 29c | 6,915$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.1 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…2b6dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,658$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,593$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5494…faacbacked Yes | 22c | 5,506$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…1824backed Yes | 19c | 5,332$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d0…2368backed Yes | 9c | 5,295$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 23c | 5,164$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…4ca4backed No | 76c | 5,163$3,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…4d37backed Yes | 1c | 5,032$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 20c | 4,984$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.38 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 76c | 4,798$3,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.05 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d9…11bcbacked Yes | 24c | 4,064$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 17c | 4,001$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.64 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 33c | 4,000$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.15 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 16c | 4,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed No | 79c | 3,841$3,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…936fbacked Yes | 25c | 3,192$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,131$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 77c | 2,998$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.81 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…285fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,832$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,751$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.18 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…124fbacked Yes | 34c | 2,706$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…46b2backed Yes | 18c | 2,706$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,697$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.03 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…f5a9backed Yes | 17c | 2,574$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 72c | 2,562$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f92…82a0backed Yes | 2c | 2,528$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…290ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,334$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked No | 66c | 2,314$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,232$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…a2cbbacked Yes | 33c | 2,169$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…f7f0backed Yes | 33c | 2,100$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f24…3953backed Yes | 6c | 2,059$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…89e0backed Yes | 21c | 2,041$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…36fdbacked Yes | 25c | 2,031$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcb…14febacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15dd…8b3fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e01…2c8abacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed No | 70c | 1,998$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.74 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 22c | 1,996$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.38 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 5c | 1,952$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…9339backed Yes | 13c | 1,919$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 15c | 1,904$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.51 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 20c | 1,885$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.93 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…b024backed Yes | 27c | 1,821$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f1…dcbbbacked Yes | 37c | 1,804$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…1832backed Yes | 13c | 1,792$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…7fd1backed Yes | 13c | 1,785$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…8edcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,777$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…5af0backed Yes | 13c | 1,772$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3931…57cebacked Yes | 13c | 1,769$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…dbbcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,769$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f0…75bfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,754$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51cf…51e9backed Yes | 13c | 1,738$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf49c…528cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,731$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbda…4faebacked Yes | 26c | 1,679$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed No | 80c | 1,674$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 23c | 1,646$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.76 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,628$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…6f5cbacked No | 67c | 1,622$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1376…bac1backed Yes | 13c | 1,558$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb783…08b2backed Yes | 15c | 1,556$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 30c | 1,504$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…e9d1backed Yes | 32c | 1,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…146dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 1,470$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.42 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed No | 69c | 1,445$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 23c | 1,426$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.96 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…90f3backed Yes | 23c | 1,424$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7606…9620backed Yes | 27c | 1,407$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…bf39backed Yes | 4c | 1,383$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 1,317$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.29 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end October 1-2?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?No won
- Will there be No Shutdown?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.