Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end October 1-2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35aa60f14428ee91906728783c25864e69aa1da630d0a86408cf628f776fad0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $967,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $853,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $967,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf8…7519backed Yes | 6c | 55,423$3,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,271.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 0c | 42,855$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 3c | 39,727$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…703bbacked Yes | 0c | 31,602$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 1c | 24,816$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.31 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…d03abacked Yes | 1c | 23,532$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 0c | 19,537$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 0c | 13,629$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9147…7053backed Yes | 2c | 13,296$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…9708backed Yes | 0c | 12,460$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 4c | 10,318$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.01 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…56a3backed Yes | 1c | 10,022$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 3c | 9,753$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…b832backed Yes | 0c | 9,700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…667fbacked Yes | 2c | 9,012$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19de…442fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,583$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae1…c13ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,899$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.62 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73eb…7d73backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…595ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,555$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0820…d1acbacked Yes | 2c | 5,221$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac90…5d06backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,657$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,512$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…aa64backed Yes | 5c | 3,279$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…285fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,119$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 1c | 3,060$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…13c3backed Yes | 3c | 2,931$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c44…f6b4backed Yes | 20c | 2,921$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…39cebacked Yes | 3c | 2,215$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 1c | 1,917$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba44…9d13backed Yes | 1c | 1,786$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x513b…262ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,474$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…8a41backed Yes | 1c | 1,145$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 2c | 1,056$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 3c | 1,042$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…df3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,039$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd018…4b19backed Yes | 3c | 1,033$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…2caebacked Yes | 7c | 1,030$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…adafbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…00f6backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…89e0backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11aa…bdf0backed Yes | 1c | 986.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…857abacked Yes | 2c | 909.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 821.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 66c | 800$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c6…c53abacked Yes | 15c | 796.03$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4beb…0f8cbacked Yes | 2c | 791.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 9c | 750$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9109…737dbacked Yes | 2c | 750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9657…b56abacked Yes | 4c | 724.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…85c1backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…3fafbacked Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bd…e937backed Yes | 3c | 652.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…559ebacked Yes | 13c | 538.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…170abacked Yes | 2c | 520.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…c9d5backed Yes | 3c | 500.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 3c | 429.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 6c | 425.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 12c | 400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 3c | 375.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd821…e681backed Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 3c | 357.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178c…5ac6backed Yes | 17c | 348.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc02c…2852backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…c42fbacked Yes | 7c | 260.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…f516backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…225dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end October 1-2?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?No won
- Will there be No Shutdown?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.