TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7d9c…00f6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
88
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Movies, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST4245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+890.6%+$1,335.96
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+75.4%+$301.75
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+49.3%+$246.27
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$298.8
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$54.76
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$240
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Commanders vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$626Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$626.31
Seahawks vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$311.4
49ers vs. Coltsbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+44.9%+$224.64
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$180
Titans vs. Raidersbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Chiefs vs. Jaguarsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.49
Buccaneers vs. Seahawksbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$255.41
Broncos vs. Eaglesbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$65
Raiders vs. Coltsbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$108
49ers vs. Ramsbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$216
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$607Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$607.14
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+355.5%+$1,421.9
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$341.4
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$507.58
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$330.03
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$6,856Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,855.87
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$7,173Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+113.3%+$8,127.48
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$5,832Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+222.4%+$12,968.32
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.76
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$285
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Israel x Iran peace deal in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$18.22
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$650
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT+214.5%+$211.88
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-70.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 15, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 225-249 October 11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$33
Will Elon tweet 200-224 October 11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT+69.5%+$138.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,099Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$3,898.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+71.5%+$101.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$86.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$167.15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.