Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225-249 October 11-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x637447eb20eca235ebfe1030965d0d9d09bb56ed2af1e854b7a872d9a0aea60e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 10c | 3,542$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.37 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…a7babacked Yes | 20c | 1,751$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…571dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 889.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…cac1backed Yes | 53c | 776.97$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes | 13c | 695$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 649.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 21c | 468.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…767abacked Yes | 42c | 449.94$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 20c | 417.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 17c | 412$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 31c | 409.35$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…9cd7backed Yes | 26c | 385$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 74c | 348.2$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…550cbacked Yes | 11c | 328.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 21c | 315.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 27c | 251.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…a907backed Yes | 28c | 242.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 8c | 192.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 15c | 185$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…38e6backed Yes | 19c | 180$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 20c | 174$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ce…9c87backed Yes | 30c | 168.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 158.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked Yes | 64c | 156.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…4542backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 10c | 124.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 55c | 112.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3634…310dbacked Yes | 10c | 110.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06d…615fbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 70c | 104.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…8f7bbacked Yes | 56c | 103.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 26c | 103.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc08…2f6bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…ff62backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…00f6backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506e…3a83backed Yes | 21c | 96.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…c212backed Yes | 13c | 84.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked Yes | 25c | 75.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 42c | 71.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ad…845ebacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 32c | 59.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…c8d0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 46c | 42.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…ff17backed Yes | 42c | 39.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…d3fdbacked Yes | 55c | 36.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 October 11-18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 October 11-18?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 11-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.