TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa26e…c212

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
42
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst NFL at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST1827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mavericks vs. Warriorsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Nets vs. Cavaliersbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Jazz vs. Spursbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+250.9%+$143
Clippers vs. Kingsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+163.2%+$32.86
76ers vs. Lakersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$94.99
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$79.76
Wizards vs. Grizzliesbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$30.51
Nets vs. Celticsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$61.5
Pelicans vs. Magicbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$39.2
Trail Blazers vs. Clippersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT+290.7%+$186.02
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$101.2
Nets vs. Grizzliesbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT+528.4%+$773.6
Raptors vs. Hornetsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$79.97
Lakers vs. Cavaliersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$36
Pelicans vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT+364.5%+$924.35
Mavericks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$150.17
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$261.62
Trail Blazers vs. Kingsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$44
All 18 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST1637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$12.82
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+606.1%+$163.95
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$19.76
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$27.4
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$24.42
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$21.58
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.7
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT+100%+$20
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times October 18-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT-100%-$31.42
Will Elon tweet 300 or more times October 18-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT+468.5%+$178.44
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 18-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2024, EDT+25.6%+$10.25
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times October 18-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2024, EDT+25.3%+$2.77
Will Elon tweet 225-249 October 11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.87
Will Elon tweet 250-274 October 11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Elon tweet 200-224 October 11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT+383.5%+$178.22
Will Elon tweet 175-199 October 11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.05
All 16 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2024, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Alabama vs. Auburnbacked Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+51.5%+$25.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.