NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Thunder
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x430a9d9fa9011b2d16e9e5656a9a70a372198ae41d224e8c775a7ab466866d72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Spurs, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ed4…366abacked Spurs | 16c | 20,743$3,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,316.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Spurs | 15c | 9,884$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.6 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…4df6backed Spurs | 11c | 5,000$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed Spurs | 11c | 3,386$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.46 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Spurs | 3c | 3,055$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Spurs | 13c | 2,404$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.81 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Spurs | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Spurs | 15c | 1,816$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Spurs | 8c | 1,668$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.74 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…c212backed Spurs | 10c | 1,020$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f34…cfafbacked Spurs | 6c | 1,010$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…f457backed Spurs | 13c | 1,003$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Spurs | 6c | 950$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…805cbacked Spurs | 15c | 933.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 428 | 27.3%117 W · 311 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Spurs | 10c | 841.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 276 | 31.2%86 W · 190 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7336backed Spurs | 12c | 743.92$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 183 | 16.9%31 W · 152 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…46d2backed Spurs | 15c | 680$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +74%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…b969backed Spurs | 14c | 485.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…0416backed Spurs | 8c | 400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Spurs | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 105 | 25.7%27 W · 78 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189f…6aaabacked Spurs | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Spurs | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…dab5backed Spurs | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb1…f7eebacked Spurs | 7c | 190$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…6dfdbacked Spurs | 12c | 188.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 163 | 25.2%41 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6315…10edbacked Spurs | 12c | 160.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…9c83backed Spurs | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…dc5abacked Spurs | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed Spurs | 14c | 119.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a49…413fbacked Spurs | 15c | 101.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Spurs | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Spurs | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Spurs | 14c | 99.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 261 | 24.1%63 W · 198 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c5…4fa3backed Spurs | 23c | 88.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Spurs | 12c | 87.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…b5e1backed Spurs | 12c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…cbc2backed Thunder | 68c | 20.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.