Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de0df010d4ccab51d7c171a7bd426cff153d2caa998851685ef83b71869294e

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,148,302
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $606,614

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,148,302 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 554 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	88,894$1,773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,772.82	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	37,991$3,520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,520.05	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…8833backed Yes	2c	19,706$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.09	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	0c	18,182$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.7	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	9c	15,373$1,435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,434.87	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes	31c	13,476$4,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,110.82	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecdb…ccd0backed Yes	3c	13,284$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…eab4backed Yes	1c	12,993$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.43	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-78%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a3…1f95backed Yes	2c	12,368$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	3c	11,817$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.59	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	17c	10,476$1,767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,767.35	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	72c	10,221$7,345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,876.25	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	9c	8,912$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.82	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	8,722$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.19	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	27c	7,407$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbef…7de2backed Yes	1c	6,696$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.63	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d6…7268backed Yes	32c	6,212$1,988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,987.8	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	24c	6,000$1,454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,453.67	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	6,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	15c	5,299$805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$805.22	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	3c	4,986$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.83	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0654…fabdbacked Yes	36c	4,763$1,707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,707.08	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	21c	4,711$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.79	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2792…bb41backed Yes	27c	4,687$1,265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,265.34	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+50.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes	2c	4,517$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.68	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	18c	4,337$768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$767.6	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes	25c	4,150$1,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,032.45	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+413.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	64c	4,065$2,586 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,478.99	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	8c	3,836$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.73	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	2c	3,500$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.03	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	5c	3,420$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.64	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes	7c	3,337$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e40…5f04backed Yes	25c	3,152$784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$784.41	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes	7c	3,137$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	19c	3,095$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	79c	3,001$2,370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$631.31	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,970$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.87	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes	36c	2,790$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	16c	2,730$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.82	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9880…82d6backed No	68c	2,586$1,757 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$828.9	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	25c	2,579$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$657.45	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	24c	2,569$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.79	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,437$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.22	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	16c	2,417$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.15	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Yes	28c	2,352$658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$658.38	66	27.3%18 W · 48 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	7c	2,330$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.64	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93b1…2c4ebacked Yes	2c	2,191$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0a…b7d2backed Yes	1c	2,159$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	24c	2,100$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc60…997cbacked Yes	2c	2,085$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.74	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	19cpaid	+85.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc49…aa14backed Yes	16c	2,060$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.05	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+136.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes	13c	2,056$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.18	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes	14c	2,027$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.79	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	16c	2,000$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	2c	2,000$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes	30c	1,949$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.28	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	32c	1,922$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.25	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes	40c	1,911$767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.86	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b2b…5072backed Yes	37c	1,814$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.99	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	73c	1,780$1,297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$482.6	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	26c	1,755$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.32	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5be1…45e3backed Yes	2c	1,730$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd50a…0eb1backed Yes	15c	1,714$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.18	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+53.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Yes	13c	1,714$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	23c	1,713$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	21c	1,698$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.12	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	27c	1,674$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.5	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ea…3bfdbacked Yes	26c	1,584$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.84	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	3c	1,562$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.55	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	9c	1,539$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.99	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	40c	1,500$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	1,499$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.49	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	27c	1,494$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.92	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	5c	1,492$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.81	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	1,465$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.45	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f2c…86bfbacked Yes	7c	1,429$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.03	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked Yes	2c	1,407$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.52	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5730…5cffbacked Yes	9c	1,405$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.2	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	16c	1,341$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.29	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c65…fff5backed Yes	26c	1,322$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.67	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12f6…80c4backed Yes	26c	1,307$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.78	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a9f…7482backed Yes	42c	1,276$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.09	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab33…8d20backed Yes	26c	1,267$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.65	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	40c	1,255$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	12c	1,253$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.87	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16a0…2f60backed Yes	31c	1,233$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.68	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes	5c	1,225$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	1c	1,221$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.04	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb9f1…5840backed Yes	19c	1,206$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x980d…4a2bbacked Yes	35c	1,201$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.81	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes	27c	1,170$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	16c	1,120$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.17	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	3c	1,097$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.26	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	7c	1,090$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.38	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	23c	1,011$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.15	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	1,010$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.89	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes	20c	1,007$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event