Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55c0e63b0f117d7043ad7c8b4eb3a676710dfffea2176357f58fd476d50347ad

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,385,572
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $618,803

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,385,572 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	212,156$2,117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,117.18	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	202,020$948 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$948.35	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	37,000$656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.21	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	19,561$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.02	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	17,459$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.27	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	2c	15,744$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.68	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	2c	12,500$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.24	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	2c	11,063$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.26	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	1c	10,451$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.75	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes	0c	10,237$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.53	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	10,135$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.28	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	7,831$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.14	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	7,216$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.25	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	6,550$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.65	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	6,340$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.45	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	5,174$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.33	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes	3c	5,170$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.14	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+413.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	4,995$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.98	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	4,800$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.8	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	4c	4,500$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.2	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x990b…c30ebacked Yes	1c	4,269$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.31	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	5c	4,158$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.4	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	2c	4,066$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.84	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	4,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	3c	3,934$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.6	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked Yes	1c	3,908$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.45	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	9cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Yes	4c	3,592$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	1c	3,571$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	2c	3,176$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.82	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	1c	3,168$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.59	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	1c	3,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,921$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	7c	2,737$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.78	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	4c	2,736$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.53	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	3c	2,500$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9792…9212backed Yes	10c	2,500$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.5	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+217.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	3c	2,498$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.74	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01fe…79f4backed Yes	3c	2,253$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	2,160$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	2,089$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	5c	2,044$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes	6c	2,004$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,972$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.52	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc18f…f929backed Yes	3c	1,963$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.5	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	9c	1,851$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.96	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	2c	1,719$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.94	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	1,674$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3067…b8e5backed Yes	3c	1,585$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.12	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	5c	1,528$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes	4c	1,504$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes	5c	1,500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	7c	1,396$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	1,345$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.04	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes	5c	1,343$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a6…1c2ebacked Yes	8c	1,250$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.63	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-79%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	3c	1,206$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes	1c	1,155$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.34	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	7c	1,120$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.39	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4789…8ff5backed Yes	2c	1,110$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	10c	1,103$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	1c	1,100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	6c	1,050$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.97	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d618backed Yes	2c	1,017$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	10c	1,002$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	1,002$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.14	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	2c	1,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5f…aaffbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Yes	10c	1,000$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	9c	1,000$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.5	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	4c	999.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.78	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	5c	936.77$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.76	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	2c	881.89$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.49	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes	2c	870.22$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.59	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes	2c	864.08$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be1…45e3backed Yes	12c	808.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	4c	714.59$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.37	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x721e…9b48backed Yes	4c	695.3$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.86	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7713…5218backed Yes	2c	661.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	15cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	2c	614.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…259dbacked Yes	2c	600$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.07	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+62.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x424a…55cfbacked Yes	4c	600$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa17c…277bbacked Yes	2c	600$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	7c	599.78$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.78	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4be…58f2backed Yes	2c	549.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	53	17%9 W · 44 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	3c	522.65$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcea5…0750backed Yes	4c	512.59$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	8%4 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x303c…4487backed Yes	2c	499.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	3c	499.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe3…bd1dbacked Yes	8c	494.46$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	+9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f9…5d85backed Yes	9c	462.34$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad0…5e5cbacked Yes	3c	444.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	6c	435.38$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	3c	428.07$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037a…deb4backed Yes	4c	416$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9880…82d6backed Yes	5c	385.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f6e…db0bbacked Yes	12c	383.51$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event