Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2300fc2ace5070be162011d020874acf4c08607cfca739d33f9d1374c57d72c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $323,312
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $213,332

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,312 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7b88…576dbacked Yes	0c	17,040$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.04	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	13,989$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7902…170cbacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	79	0%0 W · 79 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd8d…c891backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,648$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.71	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	3,121$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.07	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	3c	2,666$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.3	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	1c	2,429$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.69	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	2c	2,413$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.89	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	2,230$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.97	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes	3c	1,700$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,440$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.32	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x790e…989bbacked Yes	5c	1,092$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.11	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes	3c	1,050$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	103	25.2%26 W · 77 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f2c…86bfbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	1c	860.46$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.31	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	737$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.01	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde95…e0aebacked Yes	3c	608.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb59f…dbedbacked Yes	4c	501.55$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c2…2db2backed Yes	3c	500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.51	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	4c	463$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.52	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0dd…45e7backed Yes	2c	445.82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcaa0…1df7backed Yes	5c	402$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes	15c	399.99$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes	5c	299.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	118	10.2%12 W · 106 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-47%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	4c	268.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.38	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0338…70cfbacked Yes	6c	260$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b7…169bbacked Yes	8c	241.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0551…b427backed Yes	8c	131.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a98…5f7ebacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc36a…be63backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x846d…3f44backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.16per pick	23cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event