Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18fbad76beac3ae28a688b601917fa754d7ab124cd3048b4c3377842c3e08f98

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $687,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $534,956

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $687,610 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x247f…0008backed Yes	0c	54,002$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba81…b0a9backed Yes	0c	15,200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	14,300$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.3	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	12,119$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd62d…7e78backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf185…acebbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b88…576dbacked Yes	1c	8,220$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	6,871$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.43	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	1c	6,609$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.39	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f85…3b32backed Yes	0c	6,032$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…aa1abacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	5c	4,997$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.88	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	4,778$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.06	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,773$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.32	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	3,602$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.69	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	4c	3,385$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	2c	3,224$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.16	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	7c	2,993$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.38	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	3c	2,484$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.87	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	2,397$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	1c	2,167$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	2c	2,031$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.27	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	10c	2,019$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dea…5ed6backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf660…1b4fbacked Yes	5c	1,800$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes	5c	1,800$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,728$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	5c	1,649$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.17	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	6c	1,607$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.61	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	1,600$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3a…4580backed Yes	1c	1,538$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b91…f577backed Yes	14c	1,500$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	19cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	4c	1,371$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.97	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	1c	1,308$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x790e…989bbacked Yes	12c	1,103$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.99	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	14c	999.99$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f2c…86bfbacked Yes	11c	999.95$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.99	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	4c	924.04$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.75	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	11c	899.99$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes	13c	893.34$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde95…e0aebacked Yes	5c	816.14$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.79	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes	2c	799.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes	8c	699.95$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	686.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes	3c	644.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0a…b7d2backed Yes	5c	628.88$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	11c	612.39$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f28…4a34backed Yes	16c	607.65$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	5c	580.21$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.85	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe4be…58f2backed Yes	4c	549.2$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	53	17%9 W · 44 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb59f…dbedbacked Yes	11c	502.92$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x156d…957dbacked Yes	5c	460$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0dd…45e7backed Yes	6c	416.07$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb18…f44cbacked Yes	5c	407.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	5c	385.19$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	15c	350$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	5c	319.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.73	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes	5c	311.23$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.33	78	21.8%17 W · 61 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	4c	305.24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.79	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16a1…838fbacked Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	8c	273.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.51	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	9c	273.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b55…01c6backed Yes	4c	269.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e18…8761backed Yes	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe7b…d1d9backed Yes	6c	256.42$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91b2…2604backed Yes	5c	255.46$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	16cpaid	+80.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0674…d6c1backed Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…69d5backed Yes	10c	203.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.4wins	-0.14per pick	20cpaid	-86.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x846d…3f44backed Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.96	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.16per pick	23cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes	10c	199.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	118	10.2%12 W · 106 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-47%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	11c	182.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf225…f863backed Yes	6c	170$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes	8c	157$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81bf…e1fabacked Yes	12c	132$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91a7…c755backed Yes	8c	129.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb27b…09f4backed Yes	10c	120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0bb6…32b9backed Yes	17c	116$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f2c…c361backed Yes	11c	110$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a98…5f7ebacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc36a…be63backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes	17c	88.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…7a9ebacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0551…b427backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e47…43e0backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event