TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,897,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,684,936

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,897,588 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 875 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe842…27d6backed No1c81,839$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.65325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes32c57,127$17,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,128.9366222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes13c55,803$7,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,799.171,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4a…4f22backed Yes19c42,569$8,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,418.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+422.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes18c35,004$6,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,778.528534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x630d…3a93backed Yes3c20,152$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,477.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+895.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes22c17,538$3,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,726.754816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes17c13,429$2,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,129.883721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes17c12,966$2,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,814.058206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3e…d34ebacked Yes3c11,573$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,195.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+2,147.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x551a…7a72backed Yes4c10,173$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,742.26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+688%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes17c9,291$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,670.8322327.8%62 W · 161 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes30c9,081$2,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,342.345240.4%21 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes18c8,755$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,169.5621211.8%25 W · 187 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes18c8,685$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,129.1653817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes22c8,591$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,661.186417.2%11 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No71c8,186$5,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,809.8224672.8%179 W · 67 L+15.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes25c7,885$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,884.712466.1%15 W · 231 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes31c7,848$2,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,396.4259225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No62c7,772$4,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,830.0923464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes20c7,640$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,095.352317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes40c7,530$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,490.225311.3%6 W · 47 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No64c7,343$4,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,664.2729331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes21c7,297$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,756.657966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes27c7,099$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,174.8318116%29 W · 152 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes18c6,466$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,334.219241.3%38 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes18c6,428$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,257.621409.3%13 W · 127 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+642.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes18c6,387$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,235.937313.7%10 W · 63 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0654…fabdbacked Yes15c5,968$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,084.261323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes8c5,966$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,461.4256817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16a0…2f60backed Yes47c5,564$2,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,967.941553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No69c5,263$3,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,628.4154274.9%406 W · 136 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes14c5,259$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,540.4314314%20 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbef…7de2backed Yes37c5,197$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,289.52825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes2c5,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,899.9945715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes6c4,838$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,539.5654122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ad…47a8backed Yes15c4,820$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,082.3560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+96.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b2b…5072backed Yes38c4,741$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,930.11435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes19c4,670$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,769.386418.8%12 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5b…64ccbacked Yes47c4,255$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,258.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…d100backed Yes44c4,223$1,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,370.282850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes25c4,066$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,065.033125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes37c4,000$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.113836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes16c3,957$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,341.295514.5%8 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes19c3,898$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,138.3349919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d52…0ababacked Yes23c3,873$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,998.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+121.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed No73c3,808$2,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,775.116322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No75c3,758$2,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,803.541275%9 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No56c3,756$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.4816969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes11c3,666$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,245.382859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f3…104fbacked Yes50c3,542$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780.88922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d6…7268backed Yes35c3,436$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240.761546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes8c3,425$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,147.452020%4 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes21c3,376$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,658.727818.7%68 W · 713 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes15c3,219$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,728.113312.1%4 W · 29 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes20c3,205$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,574.323116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No77c3,106$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.688924.7%22 W · 67 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes23c3,105$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.8215520%31 W · 124 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5c9…96c3backed Yes6c3,084$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8912100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+849.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d8c…26e9backed No76c3,074$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.6650%3 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes18c3,023$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,487.3212714.2%18 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick14cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes56c2,968$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.158742.5%37 W · 50 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes16c2,863$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,402.93215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…673fbacked Yes39c2,856$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,741.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+110.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes36c2,847$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.962068.7%18 W · 188 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee3e…ebb5backed No72c2,842$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.0330%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes29c2,830$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.2368615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c28…40e7backed No77c2,771$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,146.142917.2%5 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No70c2,653$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.4762539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No73c2,588$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.4118163%114 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes11c2,533$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,262.543514.3%5 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes22c2,506$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.496913%9 W · 60 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes25c2,500$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.491926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5339…f4c4backed Yes30c2,475$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,732.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes8c2,440$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.453528.6%10 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed No64c2,429$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes32c2,354$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.97837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes31c2,338$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.935018%9 W · 41 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes32c2,301$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56015435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes13c2,272$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,972.12548%12 W · 13 L+9.2wins+0.37per pick11cpaid+624.5%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes26c2,220$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.0414718.4%27 W · 120 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No68c2,219$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.82512%3 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-67.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x892c…46cfbacked Yes9c2,218$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,018.16425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick3cpaid+177.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes20c2,200$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7519816.3%16 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f0…5c1cbacked Yes19c2,122$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes20c2,100$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.37912.7%10 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x790e…989bbacked Yes24c2,031$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.896722.4%15 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes18c2,029$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,654.335715.8%9 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-54.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes12c2,026$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785.18789%7 W · 71 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes24c2,016$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.9575122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes2c2,000$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95845511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes27c1,967$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.561868.6%16 W · 170 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked No78c1,967$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.4423819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes3c1,964$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.1162412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf7…aba5backed Yes8c1,951$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.163122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,922$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,826.262,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes30c1,897$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.910817.6%19 W · 89 L-0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid+58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes12c1,894$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.163633.3%12 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+101.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes21c1,863$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.7813121.4%28 W · 103 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-36.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Yes25c1,766$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.666627.3%18 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.