TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x063a…eb4b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
97
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST3633.3%12 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+101.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$16.13
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$812Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$811.84
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,021Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+33.3%+$340.36
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$722Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$721.71
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+743.8%+$1,669.16
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$18.62
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$79.27
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$7,479Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+94.9%+$7,100.39
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$5,294Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$5,293.51
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$4,930Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$4,930.33
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+31.6%+$30.19
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+1,786.8%+$5,087.4
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$4,131Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$4,131.45
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$3,998Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$3,998.1
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$434.34
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$379.37
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+150%+$24
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$352.4
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.24
Will Elon Musk tweet more August 21 than day before?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.83
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 8–August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.32
Will Elon Musk tweet more August 14 than day before?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.43
Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 22-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST-100%-$154.99
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 13-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$80
Will Trump tweet 20-24 times September 13-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2024, EDT+25%+$20
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+43.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will A Minecraft Movie be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+58.7%+$222
Will Zootopia 2 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+49.3%+$141.08
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$46.64
Will A Minecraft Movie be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+47.1%+$160
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+61.3%+$316.79
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$43.41
Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT+431.6%+$286.86
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-59.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+170.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+46.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cowboys vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+58.7%+$1,850
Giants vs. Patriotsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,200
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+35.1%+$7.8
All 3 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bulls vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$780
Hornets vs. Pacersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,650Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$2,650
Grizzlies vs. Spursbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$1,600
All 3 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Ding · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,228Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$1,227.83
Will Ding Liren win Game 8 of the World Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$40.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+455.6%+$328
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Flyers vs. Devilsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+122.2%+$550
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$63.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 23 minutes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$45.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.