TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,727
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$295,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,727 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5621…04a1backed No15c19,091$2,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,826.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed No70c14,033$9,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,828.811625%4 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes50c11,869$5,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,963.216350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed No1c11,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid-32.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccec…28ffbacked No5c9,903$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.2890%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c58…01aebacked No18c9,589$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ef…b1ddbacked No11c7,302$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes47c7,176$3,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,801.932639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed No61c7,153$4,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,397.652528%7 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2736…3625backed No34c5,271$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes41c5,223$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,097.595743.9%25 W · 32 L+9.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xadbc…d00fbacked No29c4,232$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.6110%0 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd9c…3873backed Yes66c3,271$2,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes33c2,967$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,002.13850%4 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed No71c2,681$1,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,916.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x216e…6501backed No10c2,425$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.491435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7099…1c44backed Yes32c2,195$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb206…f717backed No48c2,038$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7c8…24dcbacked No25c1,988$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.42633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e39…fc60backed No57c1,966$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.750%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked No43c1,903$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes57c1,450$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.8616040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed No69c1,353$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.282020%4 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-61.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked No64c1,351$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.24837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No1c1,335$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.85128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No63c1,306$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.893330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed No15c1,222$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.21286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes76c1,181$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.264553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No20c1,041$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.211040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+88.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked No30c1,015$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.262619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98eb…2c66backed Yes28c985.03$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.15944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick20cpaid+95.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb33b…092fbacked No11c955.66$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37a8…7b12backed Yes49c950.54$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.24425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes66c947.12$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.962825%7 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes24c890.32$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.13613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes80c859.58$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.564829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d66backed No9c809.38$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187f…34ddbacked No8c789.88$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes35c789.52$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.2911625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes70c700.26$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.25850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x456b…eb7ebacked Yes15c700$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5951100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07b8…3842backed No58c559.84$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.39812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-77.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6356…1885backed Yes38c540.92$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24fd…90bebacked Yes37c534.55$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+103.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e9c…bdccbacked Yes37c519.57$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc19a…b660backed No66c508.67$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.8440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4476…b218backed No25c502$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x20fd…91c7backed No57c435.55$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47db…3625backed No12c410.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca3…91f1backed Yes42c405.25$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.95520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes21c400$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes55c387.91$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.638422.6%19 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0298…0945backed No15c381.92$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x464e…7bd8backed No12c359.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.51922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No64c358.58$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.495040%20 W · 30 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+0.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes61c355.66$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.161618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes19c353.33$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.86862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+43.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes47c344.64$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.078840.9%36 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ac…fcbcbacked Yes41c333.53$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4094…5c0cbacked No11c326.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dea…2191backed No31c322.03$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6903…1035backed Yes17c319.84$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+481.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc60a…f2cfbacked No47c308.4$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5214…f50bbacked Yes66c303.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked No15c299.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9980%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc473…6289backed No7c298.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef7…4206backed Yes79c295.16$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.331136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67c1…8cdabacked No53c276.02$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d56…8fbfbacked No7c269.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eba…5622backed Yes67c268.04$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8c…6f74backed Yes16c257.19$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee4…3ababacked No9c250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.731030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03da…7907backed Yes16c250$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3126…9b0cbacked No6c249.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked No11c248.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.011421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5143…432ebacked Yes24c243.28$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.22425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f1…6600backed Yes37c242.23$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+101.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafdb…f554backed Yes41c232.02$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ea…5836backed Yes46c217.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc620…2da3backed No9c216.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4711…61b3backed Yes40c215.43$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.46933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed No68c215.25$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.327135.2%25 W · 46 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No69c210.25$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.395549.1%27 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0782…616dbacked Yes24c208$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1582100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+197.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b9b…a65ebacked No33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick24cpaid-92.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb2e…4d83backed Yes79c197.02$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.261546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3826…84efbacked No59c195.68$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.687414.9%11 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc70c…07a4backed Yes41c181.02$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-77.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f73…ced3backed No20c173.85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf1…56d8backed No35c163.43$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ca8…fad7backed Yes42c161.9$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99ca…f9e6backed No69c157.91$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcede…f2f6backed Yes57c156.4$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.59933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aff…362cbacked Yes42c152.64$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf724…a39ebacked No59c150.75$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3195…a94fbacked No23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f1…7b16backed Yes31c150$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes61c148.71$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.