TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0b9b…a65e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst Movies at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2025, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Muhammad vs. Della Maddalenabacked Muhammad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.5
Shevchenko vs. Fiorotbacked Fiorot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$137.5
Aldo vs. Zahabibacked Zahabi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$62
Sandhagen vs. Figueiredobacked Figueiredo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$196.62
de Ridder vs. Nickalbacked de Ridder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+300%+$750
Ponzinibbio vs. Rodriguezbacked Rodriguez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+25%+$40
Thicknesse vs. Topuriabacked Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+33.3%+$125
Covington vs. Buckleybacked Covington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$167.75
Kape vs. Silvabacked Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$35.11
Jones vs. Miocicbacked Miocic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$34
Royval vs. Tairabacked Royval · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT+233.3%+$70
Dawson vs. Garciabacked Garcia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$32
Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.backed Rountree Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$21
Pennington vs. Peñabacked Pennington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$152.5
Bautista vs. Aldobacked Bautista · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2024, EDT+72.4%+$42
Harrison vs. Vieirabacked Vieira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$32.3
Ziam vs. Frevolabacked Ziam · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2024, EDT+69.5%+$41
Charrière vs. Mirandabacked Miranda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$21.64
Imavov vs. Allenbacked Imavov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2024, EDT+53.8%+$35
All 19 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2025, EST185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick24cpaid-92.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Movies — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 29m and 31m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$181.39
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 29m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$87
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$251.3
Will "Regretting You" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.35
Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$268.61
Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$286.22
Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$539Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$538.56
Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.88
Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$183.32
Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.6
Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 29m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80-89?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$400
Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 60-69?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$714Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+40.1%+$286.16
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $110m and $130m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$81.61
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$66.15
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$179.23
Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$66
All 18 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2025, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-76.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gavin Newsom arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Trump signs national abortion ban?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,250
Will Trump remove tariff on China before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$65.06
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+156.4%+$192.33
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$250
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$161.49
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R Housebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$175
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$70.23
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$160.9
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$250
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$165.56
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 29, 2024, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+634.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2025, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+39.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Sep 10, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2024 August hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$155.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Boeing Starliner successfully return to Earth?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$151.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump sell shares of DJT in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$315
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$140
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oilers vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$290
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.