UFC · resolved market
Dawson vs. Garcia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa50dee8b5e59aa4fdde4f75b39d3a18e5b55c502994f7cf153e13e0b4d694473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dawsonof Dawson, Garcia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Garcia | 1c | 50,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Garcia | 24c | 1,700$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Dawson | 76c | 1,415$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Garcia | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Garcia | 26c | 1,000$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.51 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Dawson | 76c | 657$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Garcia | 24c | 597.88$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.47 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…b318backed Dawson | 80c | 584.24$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Dawson | 74c | 555.35$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.43 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Dawson | 76c | 307.69$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Garcia | 19c | 222.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Garcia | 24c | 144.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Dawson | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Garcia | 21c | 98.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…93ccbacked Dawson | 75c | 97.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Garcia | 25c | 88.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Dawson | 79c | 86.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Dawson | 76c | 47.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d7…7b2abacked Dawson | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Dawson | 75c | 42.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dawson vs. Garciathis page
- Njokuani vs. GoodenNjokuani won
- Rodriguez vs. MoronoRodriguez won
- Royval vs. TairaRoyval won
- Tavares vs. ParkPark won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.