UFC · resolved market
Tavares vs. Park
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbd3b393b06be1e414ed8436eeefe5a2b80969ced20972b3391151ae3c4292cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Parkof Tavares, Park
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Park | 65c | 2,063$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.46 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Tavares | 35c | 1,428$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…5638backed Park | 65c | 1,428$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb8…61cdbacked Park | 63c | 1,006$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cf…a5b1backed Tavares | 34c | 1,005$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tavares | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…965cbacked Tavares | 37c | 673.89$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Tavares | 41c | 500$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Park | 59c | 310.39$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.32 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Tavares | 33c | 288.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2582…39d8backed Tavares | 38c | 133.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Park | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed Park | 64c | 99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Tavares | 33c | 99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Tavares | 36c | 92.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Park | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…a88cbacked Park | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…8e4ebacked Park | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…b353backed Tavares | 37c | 56.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Tavares | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Tavares | 35c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Park | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…7970backed Park | 66c | 40.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Tavares | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…a89fbacked Park | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Park | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Park | 67c | 24.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Park | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…c374backed Park | 66c | 15.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tavares vs. Parkthis page
- Dawson vs. GarciaDawson won
- Njokuani vs. GoodenNjokuani won
- Rodriguez vs. MoronoRodriguez won
- Royval vs. TairaRoyval won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.