UFC · resolved market
Rodriguez vs. Morono
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2653f9fec57afc7ba2384141e8276dfd33366d129294ee0909c9580e7405e9b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rodriguezof Rodriguez, Morono
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Morono | 1c | 50,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Morono | 34c | 1,470$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…5638backed Rodriguez | 66c | 1,218$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.03 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Morono | 37c | 1,018$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Rodriguez | 63c | 915.21$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.63 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Rodriguez | 64c | 857.05$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.86 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Morono | 51c | 220.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.18 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Morono | 36c | 202.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Rodriguez | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Rodriguez | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed Rodriguez | 66c | 99.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Morono | 30c | 99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…8e4ebacked Rodriguez | 68c | 73.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Rodriguez | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…61b3backed Rodriguez | 67c | 53.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Morono | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Rodriguez | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Rodriguez | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Morono | 32c | 32.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rodriguez vs. Moronothis page
- Dawson vs. GarciaDawson won
- Njokuani vs. GoodenNjokuani won
- Royval vs. TairaRoyval won
- Tavares vs. ParkPark won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.