UFC · resolved market
Royval vs. Taira
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ea00d44e223f5159c5df70e10177c6477db4e895fc1d289a2810abb39952d7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royvalof Royval, Taira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Royval | 30c | 2,041$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.11 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b5…17f5backed Royval | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Royval | 29c | 2,000$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.74 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Royval | 28c | 1,785$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.17 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Taira | 70c | 1,641$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.97 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Taira | 71c | 1,579$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.47 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7a…3ef4backed Taira | 72c | 1,372$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e785backed Royval | 31c | 1,342$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +226.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…ef9cbacked Royval | 28c | 1,010$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +262.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80fb…1be2backed Taira | 69c | 1,009$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Taira | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Taira | 71c | 803.02$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.14 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…60e4backed Taira | 70c | 715.02$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Taira | 72c | 645.62$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Taira | 65c | 554.21$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.51 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Royval | 36c | 550$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.5 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…19d9backed Taira | 70c | 511.58$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Taira | 72c | 500$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3b…10d1backed Taira | 70c | 485.53$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…5da4backed Taira | 70c | 428.38$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Royval | 28c | 354.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.4 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Royval | 30c | 350.33$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.93 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Royval | 28c | 349.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Royval | 29c | 301.38$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.38 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…b88abacked Taira | 70c | 288$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0841…02b2backed Taira | 70c | 283$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Taira | 72c | 278$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.12 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…218ebacked Royval | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…7089backed Taira | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed Royval | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Taira | 72c | 249.12$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Royval | 28c | 231.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.94 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Royval | 29c | 215.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.02 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac8…d2abbacked Royval | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2582…39d8backed Royval | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Royval | 29c | 171.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Taira | 73c | 168.55$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.53 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Taira | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…757dbacked Royval | 29c | 127.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3d…c259backed Royval | 34c | 116.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…a01bbacked Taira | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880f…5b63backed Royval | 29c | 107.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +246.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Taira | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Royval | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Royval | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Royval | 25c | 99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Taira | 72c | 97.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed Taira | 70c | 89.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…b353backed Royval | 29c | 82.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Taira | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed Taira | 73c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Taira | 74c | 73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…d321backed Taira | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd20e…1a59backed Taira | 73c | 60.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Royval | 26c | 58.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…45e9backed Royval | 29c | 54.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +248%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…b65fbacked Taira | 72c | 51.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90d7…7b2abacked Taira | 73c | 50.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe174…f74bbacked Royval | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Taira | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…1402backed Taira | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…b318backed Taira | 73c | 48.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f41…46d4backed Taira | 72c | 48.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…a89fbacked Taira | 76c | 47.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…a88cbacked Royval | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…5be6backed Taira | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Royval | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…1967backed Royval | 30c | 35.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…1d3cbacked Taira | 71c | 29.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb945…bf3abacked Taira | 74c | 22.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78df…cd96backed Taira | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…7b29backed Taira | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Royval vs. Tairathis page
- Dawson vs. GarciaDawson won
- Njokuani vs. GoodenNjokuani won
- Rodriguez vs. MoronoRodriguez won
- Tavares vs. ParkPark won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.