TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd35d…7089

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
156
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst UFC at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST14452.8%76 W · 68 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 144 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$800
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+222.6%+$222.58
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Packers vs. Vikingsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Colts vs. Texansbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Commanders vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Chargers vs. Broncosbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Cowboys vs. Giantsbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Saints vs. Falconsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+61.3%+$61.29
Browns vs. Bengalsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+300%+$300
Seahawks vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Broncos vs. Chiefsbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+35.1%+$87.84
49ers vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Patriots vs. Ravensbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+122.2%+$305.56
Lions vs. Ramsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Packers vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+203%+$40.61
Colts vs. Seahawksbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+185.7%+$464.29
Bears vs. Packersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$476Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$475.99
Broncos vs. Raidersbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+26.6%+$132.91
Colts vs. Jaguarsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$250
Seahawks vs. Falconsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+33.3%+$166.67
Jaguars vs. Titansbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+38.9%+$77.78
Texans vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$400
49ers vs. Brownsbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+42.9%+$214.29
Showing 25 of 144 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2024, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-76.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jones vs. Miocicbacked Miocic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$250
Oliveira vs. Chandlerbacked Chandler · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$250
Nickal vs. Craigbacked Craig · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$250
Topuria vs. Hollowaybacked Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT+38.9%+$427.78
Hernandez vs. Pereirabacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$300
Royval vs. Tairabacked Taira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$175
All 6 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Sep 28, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$183.87
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+89.1%+$178.24
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$233.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,878Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,878.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$1,000
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.