NFL · resolved market
Broncos vs. Raiders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd25640cf4d4cdf40fc7f6588730a80ff19b1902f58902a76514219748842c65a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Broncos, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,679,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,796,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,679,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 444 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Raiders | 22c | 593,663$130,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130,015.49 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Raiders | 16c | 166,541$27,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,403.69 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Broncos | 78c | 150,000$117,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,000 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Raiders | 21c | 118,140$24,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,809.49 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Raiders | 21c | 91,038$19,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,117.97 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Raiders | 11c | 60,957$6,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,446.02 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Broncos | 78c | 60,072$47,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,947.18 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Broncos | 79c | 60,000$47,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,600 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Broncos | 78c | 47,000$36,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,340 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Broncos | 78c | 46,973$36,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,333.99 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Raiders | 23c | 42,391$9,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,750 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Broncos | 78c | 41,517$32,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,104.91 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Broncos | 78c | 32,751$25,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,205.22 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Broncos | 78c | 25,861$20,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,610.84 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Raiders | 18c | 25,000$4,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.15 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Broncos | 80c | 24,897$19,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,076.87 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Broncos | 79c | 20,000$15,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Broncos | 78c | 19,200$14,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,224 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Broncos | 79c | 19,032$15,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,996.66 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Raiders | 16c | 18,232$2,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,858.35 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Broncos | 78c | 18,004$14,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,960.85 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…1905backed Broncos | 78c | 17,000$13,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,740 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 56cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Broncos | 77c | 15,122$11,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,477.95 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Broncos | 78c | 15,037$11,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,328.61 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9e…eddcbacked Raiders | 13c | 13,279$1,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed Broncos | 79c | 13,000$10,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,730 | 54 | 72.2%39 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Broncos | 79c | 12,209$9,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,563.89 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Raiders | 18c | 12,109$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.62 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Raiders | 20c | 11,612$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.57 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Broncos | 78c | 11,000$8,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,420 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Broncos | 78c | 10,950$8,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,408.98 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Raiders | 21c | 10,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Broncos | 77c | 10,000$7,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Broncos | 77c | 10,000$7,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,299.98 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Broncos | 79c | 9,955$7,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.76 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe14…11eebacked Broncos | 78c | 9,685$7,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.7 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4a…4ef5backed Broncos | 78c | 9,660$7,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…9c48backed Raiders | 6c | 9,641$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.68 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Broncos | 74c | 9,612$7,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.01 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Raiders | 21c | 9,000$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.99 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…ed6bbacked Broncos | 78c | 8,317$6,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Raiders | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Raiders | 14c | 7,549$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.02 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Raiders | 21c | 7,428$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.98 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Raiders | 12c | 7,344$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.04 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d34…b76fbacked Broncos | 79c | 6,500$5,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Raiders | 3c | 6,335$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.58 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Broncos | 79c | 5,813$4,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.49 | 318 | 54.7%174 W · 144 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Raiders | 2c | 5,555$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +296.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Broncos | 79c | 5,476$4,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.16 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raiders | 12c | 5,090$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.33 | 273 | 48.7%133 W · 140 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Raiders | 23c | 5,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…27bbbacked Broncos | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Broncos | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Broncos | 78c | 4,936$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.9 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b1…faebbacked Raiders | 16c | 4,859$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.41 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Broncos | 78c | 4,800$3,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Broncos | 79c | 4,794$3,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.74 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6141…ded2backed Broncos | 79c | 4,690$3,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.94 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Broncos | 78c | 4,600$3,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.04 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Broncos | 78c | 4,450$3,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.55 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Broncos | 78c | 4,400$3,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Raiders | 21c | 4,206$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.22 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Broncos | 78c | 4,079$3,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.93 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked Broncos | 78c | 4,020$3,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.44 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Broncos | 78c | 3,976$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.72 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…2657backed Raiders | 21c | 3,788$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.47 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…8257backed Broncos | 78c | 3,600$2,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Broncos | 79c | 3,575$2,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 74cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Broncos | 77c | 3,559$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.25 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…7bf8backed Broncos | 78c | 3,525$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Broncos | 79c | 3,390$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.87 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Broncos | 78c | 3,205$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.13 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…169ebacked Raiders | 20c | 3,181$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.14 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbb…06c5backed Raiders | 20c | 3,137$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Broncos | 78c | 3,105$2,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.1 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5c…aad0backed Broncos | 78c | 2,821$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.51 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6da…0e84backed Raiders | 23c | 2,604$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Raiders | 14c | 2,518$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.49 | 192 | 35.4%68 W · 124 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Broncos | 79c | 2,500$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Raiders | 21c | 2,381$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.01 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Raiders | 1c | 2,222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Raiders | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.22 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Broncos | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…db3cbacked Broncos | 79c | 1,901$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Broncos | 78c | 1,804$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.16 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Raiders | 21c | 1,739$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.11 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…c497backed Broncos | 79c | 1,686$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf6…af1ebacked Broncos | 79c | 1,650$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Raiders | 22c | 1,636$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4dc1backed Raiders | 10c | 1,586$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Broncos | 75c | 1,564$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.93 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Raiders | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…5348backed Broncos | 78c | 1,355$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Broncos | 78c | 1,330$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Broncos | 79c | 1,300$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Raiders | 21c | 1,300$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.99 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed3…bffcbacked Broncos | 78c | 1,283$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Broncos | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x810c…51cabacked Broncos | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Broncos vs. Raidersthis page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Broncos won
- Broncos vs. Raiders: O/U 39.5Over won
- Broncos vs. Raiders: O/U 40.5Over won
- Raiders Team Total: O/U 16.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-7.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Broncos (-8.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.