NFL · resolved market
Spread: Broncos (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13d44abee2914a1e2a6b207f99b35fdf262df3562418766ecc3321385ad7e314
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Broncos, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $584,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $638,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $584,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Raiders | 53c | 513,933$272,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241,548.61 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Broncos | 47c | 494,717$232,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232,506.62 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Broncos | 47c | 22,075$10,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,375.38 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Raiders | 53c | 5,438$2,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,556.77 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raiders | 44c | 4,121$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.93 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48be…73a8backed Broncos | 56c | 3,571$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Broncos | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Broncos | 49c | 2,010$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.9 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Raiders | 53c | 1,256$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.48 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Raiders | 51c | 776.62$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.7 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Broncos | 48c | 688.77$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.99 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Broncos | 52c | 464.04$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.18 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Broncos | 47c | 453$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.91 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 51c | 415.08$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.79 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Raiders | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked Raiders | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raiders | 51c | 361.81$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.51 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Broncos | 47c | 235.11$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Raiders | 53c | 126$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Raiders | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Raiders | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Broncos | 54c | 94.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…ba36backed Raiders | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raiders | 71c | 80.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Broncos | 47c | 70.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Broncos | 29c | 68.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Broncos | 51c | 65.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…bf69backed Raiders | 53c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Broncos | 47c | 45.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Raiders | 53c | 45.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Broncos | 25c | 43.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Raiders | 52c | 42.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Raiders | 53c | 38.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Raiders | 52c | 37.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ce…d4bfbacked Broncos | 56c | 34.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…d99abacked Broncos | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Raiders | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e3cfbacked Broncos | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0a…266fbacked Broncos | 48c | 29.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Raiders | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…8e4fbacked Broncos | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Broncos | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Broncos | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…8541backed Raiders | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Broncos (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Broncos won
- Broncos vs. RaidersBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Raiders: O/U 39.5Over won
- Broncos vs. Raiders: O/U 40.5Over won
- Raiders Team Total: O/U 16.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-7.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.