NFL · resolved market
Broncos vs. Raiders: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x447496bce7ead156cd0280d71ac78edcec10ce52428ece185bde3cad59f259b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 12,885$6,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,547.62 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Over | 49c | 10,044$4,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,122.44 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 9,796$4,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,038.8 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Under | 51c | 9,495$4,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,879.04 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 51c | 4,428$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.52 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Over | 49c | 2,388$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.75 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a2…4a7ebacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 49c | 1,531$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.61 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Over | 49c | 636$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.36 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 605$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.55 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Under | 51c | 599.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 561.52$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.37 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 360$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 48c | 179.18$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 125.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5c…ed5bbacked Over | 52c | 120.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Over | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Over | 50c | 80.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…8559backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 55.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…3c66backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 49c | 40.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 34.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 49c | 27.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 21.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…b954backed Under | 52c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…5203backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Broncos vs. Raiders: O/U 40.5this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Broncos won
- Broncos vs. RaidersBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Raiders: O/U 39.5Over won
- Raiders Team Total: O/U 16.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-7.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Broncos (-8.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.