TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Broncos (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raidersof Broncos, Raiders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$795,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$843,707

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $795,616 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0bc…af98backed Broncos55c539,182$298,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298,935.43944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick67cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Raiders44c427,989$188,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239,564.8416955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Broncos50c75,986$37,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,862.2286547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Raiders48c72,235$34,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,843.9873651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Raiders50c60,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,00011168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Raiders50c41,747$20,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,992.4517041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Raiders41c20,672$8,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,283.7950242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Raiders48c20,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,40011146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5077…4e7cbacked Broncos54c17,935$9,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,642.152740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Raiders51c14,706$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,205.885957.6%34 W · 25 L+7.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Broncos49c13,817$6,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,770.234955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Broncos50c11,609$5,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,798.681,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Raiders50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Broncos50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Raiders43c8,000$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,559.9918156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Broncos61c6,000$3,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,669.52454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa7…adbfbacked Broncos51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.992240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Raiders49c5,873$2,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,995.451266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Raiders49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.993444.1%15 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Raiders54c4,219$2,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.756759.7%40 W · 27 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Raiders37c4,060$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,575.564747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Broncos50c3,781$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.544652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Broncos57c3,500$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99519651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Broncos48c3,412$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.9328447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f72…0841backed Broncos51c3,033$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Broncos61c3,029$1,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,837.463056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Broncos50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25019240.1%77 W · 115 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Broncos51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2757626.3%20 W · 56 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Raiders48c2,466$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.414252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Raiders41c2,289$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.7268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Broncos51c1,942$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Broncos49c1,719$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.9847348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Broncos52c1,680$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88011255.4%62 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Raiders50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7506647%31 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Raiders45c1,312$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.5154451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Broncos68c1,213$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.960049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd73b…70adbacked Raiders50c1,160$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.031560%9 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Raiders52c1,125$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.8214154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae5…b896backed Broncos52c1,050$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.52552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Raiders48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.6314035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Raiders47c848.22$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.5620661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Broncos58c800$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46611755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Broncos52c769.23$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40015944%70 W · 89 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Broncos50c709$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.565048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Raiders51c676$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.2447738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked Raiders44c602.27$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.273050%15 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Raiders50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3009657.3%55 W · 41 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Raiders46c518.37$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.1636341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Raiders50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25017251.7%89 W · 83 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked Broncos51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25511154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Raiders50c450$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22511759.8%70 W · 47 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Broncos51c399$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4912151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x258e…d16cbacked Broncos51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008747.1%41 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Broncos52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019361.7%119 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Broncos50c315.57$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.325939%23 W · 36 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Raiders48c304$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8920757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Raiders50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1509138.5%35 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Broncos50c299.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15131540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb457…b13abacked Raiders50c244$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1224951%25 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd65…fcfabacked Broncos41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Raiders46c235.34$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.6132043.8%140 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Raiders44c230$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.655345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Raiders37c223.3$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.487044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Broncos52c220$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.42544%11 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raiders47c212.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.371,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Raiders49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0812039.2%47 W · 73 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Raiders52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9659453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Raiders50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10019459.3%115 W · 79 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf36f…fb15backed Broncos50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008650%43 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Raiders53c189$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.835954.2%32 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd64…c090backed Broncos63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003135.5%11 W · 20 L-5.3wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-29.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdc5b…ba65backed Raiders49c153.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.063528.6%10 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Raiders38c149.15$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2829439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Broncos50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608274.4%61 W · 21 L+8.6wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Broncos51c117.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Raiders53c113.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2111054.5%60 W · 50 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25b0…94ebbacked Raiders52c107.69$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.694660.9%28 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x69bc…c942backed Broncos61c106.8$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ad…5a42backed Raiders49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.044247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Raiders52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4813844.9%62 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25fd…6219backed Raiders52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Raiders50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5024352.7%128 W · 115 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Broncos50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507750.6%39 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Broncos67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.548847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Raiders50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5013845.7%63 W · 75 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Raiders57c99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.574748.9%23 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Broncos51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b79…3c8cbacked Broncos53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012843%55 W · 73 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf35…b327backed Broncos53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016946.7%79 W · 90 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Broncos43c94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4231450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Raiders59c85.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.256055%33 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d3…a973backed Broncos59c83.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492060%12 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7f…91ebbacked Raiders42c82.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.791540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Broncos49c80.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016940.8%69 W · 100 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Broncos65c79.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5914158.9%83 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc95c…cef3backed Raiders51c72$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9617359%102 W · 71 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dba…c816backed Broncos56c71.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404325.6%11 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Broncos48c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.620354.7%111 W · 92 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd46a…e9dbbacked Broncos49c52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Raiders48c50.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3934349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.