TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfe64…873e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
118
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NFL, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 56 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST5154.9%28 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+92.3%+$72
Will Christian McCaffrey win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10.35
Will Jayden Daniels win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Aidan Hutchinson win the 2025-26 NFL DPOY?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$54
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+108.3%+$78
Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 41.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$50.83
Will the Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Lions vs. Bears: O/U 50.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$73.5
Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$76.5
Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 43.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$78
Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 41.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$76.5
Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 53.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$75
49ers vs. Colts: O/U 46.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+96.1%+$73.5
Spread: Lions (-6.5)backed Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+112.8%+$79.49
Spread: Bills (-10.5)backed Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+96.1%+$73.5
Spread: Bengals (-4.5)backed Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+108.3%+$78
Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+96.1%+$73.5
Spread: Bears (-1.5)backed Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 44.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$76.5
Titans vs. 49ers: O/U 44.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+92.3%+$72
Will the New York Giants win 6 or more regular season games?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Broncos vs. Raiders: O/U 39.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$48
Spread: Broncos (-8.5)backed Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+88.7%+$47
Giants vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+96.1%+$98
Spread: Chargers (-9.5)backed Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$104
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT3842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-6.5)backed Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.52
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5)backed Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5)backed Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.52
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.5
NCAA Tournament: Double-digit seed to make Quarterfinals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+150%+$59.99
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.74
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-20.5)backed Furman Paladins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$24.78
Spread: Miami Hurricanes (-1.5)backed Missouri Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.79
Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-14.5)backed California Baptist Lancers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$24
Spread: Florida Gators (-35.5)backed Prairie View A&M Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.78
Spread: UCLA Bruins (-5.5)backed UCF Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$25.28
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-25.5)backed Queens (NC) Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.78
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-9.5)backed Northern Iowa Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.29
Spread: Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5)backed Clemson Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-11.5)backed Miami (OH) RedHawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.27
Spread: Utah State Aggies (-1.5)backed Villanova Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.29
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-18.5)backed Wright State Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$24
Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)backed Hofstra Pride · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.29
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-24.5)backed Tennessee State Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.29
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-30.5)backed LIU Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.29
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5)backed Akron Zips · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.29
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-2.5)backed Santa Clara Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.79
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-21.5)backed Kennesaw State Owls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$23.79
Spread: Georgia Bulldogs (-1.5)backed Saint Louis Billikens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$26.27
Spread: Houston Cougars (-23.5)backed Idaho Vandals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.78
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.3
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$481.95
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
NBA Playoffs: Timberwolves vs. Warriors (To Advance)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.5
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.75
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$354.13
All 9 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+149.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+195%+$66.1
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$51
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Final - Canada vs. USAbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$537Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+67.7%+$363.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$713Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+40.3%+$287
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$97
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.