NFL · resolved market
Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3970c71357a7e0bc0fe00d5de747f62ab12fab397e7a2851c48b80e9b65cfca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Over | 47c | 8,200$3,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,346 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 4,890$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580.76 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Under | 52c | 2,868$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked Under | 5c | 2,400$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 53c | 2,233$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.49 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 2,220$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.12 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 40c | 1,651$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.6 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 9c | 1,113$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Over | 49c | 1,000$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Over | 47c | 935.08$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.59 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Under | 5c | 900$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 5c | 900$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 856.97$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.01 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9af…7807backed Over | 45c | 821.98$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 796.19$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.5 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Over | 48c | 781.54$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.4 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 51c | 627.45$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.45 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Under | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Under | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…3a44backed Under | 68c | 404.41$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 397.13$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.82 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Under | 4c | 299.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 47c | 260.78$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.22 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 234.7$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.93 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…d46bbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Over | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Under | 72c | 139.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 53c | 128$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 51c | 114.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 34c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 50c | 98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Under | 57c | 88.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…3059backed Over | 47c | 85.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fadabacked Under | 53c | 83.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 56c | 82.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 54c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Over | 46c | 57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Over | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Under | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 46c | 43.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6788…f69dbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 35c | 37.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Over | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Under | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Under | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed Under | 79c | 19.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 41.5this page
- Giants vs. RaidersGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H MoneylineGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 37.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 38.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 40.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Giants (-1.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-10.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-13.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-14.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-2.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-3.5)Giants won
- Spread: Raiders (-1.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.