NFL · resolved market
Spread: Giants (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c3d6fbba0feb6773cd7aa0d73b3553b5fb576292e31441f1f8625d0bda38990
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Giants, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Raiders | 56c | 21,794$12,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,173.51 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…a0fbbacked Giants | 44c | 17,810$7,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,973.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Giants | 44c | 5,598$2,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,135 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 56c | 5,202$2,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,913.09 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Giants | 45c | 2,421$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.85 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Raiders | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Giants | 44c | 660.34$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Giants | 43c | 517.64$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.05 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Giants | 43c | 507.15$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.44 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raiders | 57c | 505$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.55 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Giants | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Raiders | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Giants | 44c | 215$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Giants | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Giants | 44c | 152.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Raiders | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Giants | 45c | 115$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Raiders | 57c | 111.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Giants | 44c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Giants | 43c | 99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Giants | 44c | 96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Raiders | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Giants | 44c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cf…cab1backed Raiders | 50c | 57.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Raiders | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Giants | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Raiders | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Raiders | 56c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Raiders | 56c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Raiders | 55c | 42.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…c3eabacked Raiders | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Raiders | 56c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Giants | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Giants | 45c | 35.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raiders | 56c | 34.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Giants | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed Giants | 44c | 27.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Raiders | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Raiders | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Raiders | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…9e83backed Giants | 52c | 24.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Raiders | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Raiders | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Giants (-3.5)this page
- Giants vs. RaidersGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H MoneylineGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 37.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 38.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 40.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 41.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Giants (-1.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-10.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-13.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-14.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-2.5)Giants won
- Spread: Raiders (-1.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.