NFL · resolved market
Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf682de637a6394a6b5142b2db36a349cdcd4066bfff18c3071c1053ff302f6eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 45c | 9,101$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000.58 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 57c | 4,223$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425.03 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 3,154$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.08 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 3,081$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.5 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Under | 58c | 2,589$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abf…6024backed Over | 47c | 957.45$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.45 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 43c | 470$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…6ec8backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Over | 43c | 191$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…c4c7backed Under | 56c | 182.14$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Over | 43c | 175.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5c…ed5bbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Under | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 45c | 105.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 56c | 92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…57f1backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Over | 43c | 76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Under | 57c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Over | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Over | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaabe…ff32backed Under | 55c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Over | 45c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Under | 57c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Over | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Under | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Under | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Under | 57c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Under | 56c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Under | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Over | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 57c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d7…d6d0backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Over | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Over | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Under | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 42.5this page
- Giants vs. RaidersGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H MoneylineGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 37.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 38.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 40.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Giants (-1.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-10.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-13.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-14.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-2.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-3.5)Giants won
- Spread: Raiders (-1.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.