NFL · resolved market
Spread: Raiders (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dc68c754dff4d7ca0b3277dc530762beb65065149452c8951b2eecf25c0a520
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Raiders, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Raiders | 39c | 160$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Raiders | 39c | 149$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Raiders | 39c | 148$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Giants | 60c | 142$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Raiders | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Giants | 61c | 117$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Raiders | 40c | 92.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Giants | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Raiders | 39c | 67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Giants | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Giants | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Giants | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Giants | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Raiders | 39c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Giants | 60c | 41.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Giants | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Giants | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Giants | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Giants | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Giants | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Giants | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Raiders | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Giants | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Giants | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Raiders | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Giants | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Raiders | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Raiders | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Giants | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Giants | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Giants | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Raiders | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Giants | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…2614backed Giants | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Giants | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raiders (-1.5)this page
- Giants vs. RaidersGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H MoneylineGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 37.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 38.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 40.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 41.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Giants (-1.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-10.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-13.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-14.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-2.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-3.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.