NFL · resolved market
Spread: Giants (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ae1abab1b01971f3460cbd1557be0c5e395baccd29e9ca71a1e3d9fab226990
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Giants, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Raiders | 46c | 96,260$44,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,414.94 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Giants | 54c | 60,000$32,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,600 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Raiders | 46c | 35,000$16,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,100 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Giants | 52c | 21,192$11,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,083.66 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Giants | 54c | 20,793$11,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,564.58 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Giants | 54c | 19,004$10,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,741.84 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Giants | 54c | 18,900$10,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,694 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Giants | 53c | 5,045$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.47 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…a0fbbacked Raiders | 47c | 4,898$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.15 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Giants | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 49c | 3,738$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.64 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Giants | 54c | 3,619$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.74 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…c3eabacked Raiders | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Raiders | 46c | 2,100$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Raiders | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raiders | 47c | 1,966$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Raiders | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…4e7cbacked Raiders | 8c | 1,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Giants | 53c | 1,417$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.83 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raiders | 47c | 1,412$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.53 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Raiders | 49c | 1,164$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.18 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Giants | 53c | 1,029$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.32 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Raiders | 46c | 999.97$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Raiders | 47c | 900$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raiders | 48c | 814.39$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.6 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Raiders | 46c | 670.05$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.22 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Giants | 51c | 658.82$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.82 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Raiders | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Raiders | 47c | 519.15$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…52bcbacked Raiders | 47c | 403.81$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.79 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Giants | 53c | 342.15$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.81 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe21a…88edbacked Raiders | 37c | 289.19$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Giants | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Giants | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Giants | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…5d26backed Raiders | 46c | 222$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Raiders | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Giants | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…2030backed Giants | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raiders | 13c | 183$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Raiders | 47c | 129.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Raiders | 48c | 107.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…e0debacked Raiders | 47c | 104$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Raiders | 47c | 102$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Giants | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed Raiders | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c01…428ebacked Raiders | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.28per pick | 54cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…eef8backed Giants | 54c | 99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…d61cbacked Giants | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Raiders | 47c | 83.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…01f1backed Giants | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Giants | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Raiders | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Raiders | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Giants | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Raiders | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…460fbacked Raiders | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Raiders | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…4c2cbacked Giants | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Giants | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Raiders | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Raiders | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Giants | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Giants | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Giants | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Giants | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Raiders | 47c | 26.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Raiders | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Giants | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Raiders | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Giants (-2.5)this page
- Giants vs. RaidersGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H MoneylineGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 37.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 38.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 40.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 41.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Giants (-1.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-10.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-13.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-14.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-3.5)Giants won
- Spread: Raiders (-1.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.