NFL · resolved market
Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c00e832c23de636f56ce2815712c873789ba472783d38a46a40da20f0e6d8eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 51c | 24,912$12,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,275.17 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 12,151$6,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,014.74 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +931.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 10,641$5,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,213.9 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 2,733$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.94 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 52c | 2,733$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked Under | 4c | 2,600$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Under | 4c | 2,100$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 4c | 2,100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Over | 60c | 1,222$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 1,001$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.38 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 800$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 50c | 556$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 49c | 310$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 41c | 208.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Over | 51c | 205$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Under | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Over | 52c | 102.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7a…059dbacked Over | 75c | 31.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Under | 49c | 28.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 40.5this page
- Giants vs. RaidersGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H MoneylineGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 37.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 38.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 41.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Giants (-1.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-10.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-13.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-14.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-2.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-3.5)Giants won
- Spread: Raiders (-1.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.