NFL · resolved market
Spread: Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a2bb18fa311ca57cc78d939ca8ae70f7d4212f0e39249e24a062bd32f1cf9b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Giants, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Giants | 53c | 3,117$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.62 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Raiders | 47c | 2,691$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raiders | 46c | 418$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.28 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Raiders | 44c | 155$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Raiders | 44c | 132$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Raiders | 44c | 116$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Raiders | 45c | 112.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Raiders | 44c | 93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Raiders | 44c | 91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Giants | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Raiders | 44c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Giants | 56c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Raiders | 44c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed Raiders | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Raiders | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Giants | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…c438backed Giants | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Raiders | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Giants | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Giants | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Giants | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Giants | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Raiders | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Giants | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Raiders | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Giants | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Giants | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Giants | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.40per pick | 51cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Giants | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Giants | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Giants | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Giants | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Giants | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +57%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Giants | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +53%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Giants | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x638e…2a7dbacked Giants | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Giants | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Giants (-1.5)this page
- Giants vs. RaidersGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H MoneylineGiants won
- Giants vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 37.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 38.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 40.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 41.5Over won
- Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Giants (-10.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-13.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-14.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-2.5)Giants won
- Spread: Giants (-3.5)Giants won
- Spread: Raiders (-1.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.