TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x35f9…e09d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
226
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT6235.5%22 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 62 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-1.5)backed Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$969Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$969.4
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$346.5
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,134Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,134.08
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Florida Gators (-9.5)backed Florida Gators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.28
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked UCLA Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.1
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Utah State Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U 144.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.52
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-10.5)backed Arkansas Razorbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.67
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5)backed Arkansas Razorbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.34
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacksbacked Arkansas Razorbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$77.35
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5)backed Arkansas Razorbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.36
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: O/U 147.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.24
Spread: Florida Gators (-7.5)backed Florida Gators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.16
Spread: Florida Gators (-8.5)backed Florida Gators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.95
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-12.5)backed Wisconsin Badgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49.58
Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-2.5)backed UMBC Retrievers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+82.5%+$122.67
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-10.5)backed Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.78
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked North Carolina Tar Heels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$19.97
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-17.5)backed North Carolina Tar Heels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+100%+$211.33
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona State Sun Devilsbacked Kansas Jayhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$247.88
Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-3.5)backed North Carolina Tar Heels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+80.8%+$110.56
Clemson Tigers vs. North Carolina Tar Heelsbacked North Carolina Tar Heels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$337Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+129.9%+$437.86
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary's Gaelsbacked Gonzaga Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$809Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$808.74
Showing 25 of 62 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT4434.1%15 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$286.43
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$961Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$961
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$580
Spread: Thunder (-2.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$643Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$505.21
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$506Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+96.3%+$487.49
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$440
Will Boston Celtics advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$233.72
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$223
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$425.06
Spread: Celtics (-5.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$712Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$712
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,704Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+67.5%+$1,149.68
Spread: Rockets (-4.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.86
Spread: Rockets (-5.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.89
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$388Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+104.8%+$406.27
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$358Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$176.22
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$340.76
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.38
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+203%+$643.07
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$224.12
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$214
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$298.84
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT3030%9 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-42.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NFL — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Garrett Nussmeier be the 2nd quarterback drafted in the 2026 pro football draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.28
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$170.1
Will Mike Vrabel win NFL Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+40.4%+$98.96
Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+174.4%+$152.89
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$438
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+44.5%+$240.3
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$565Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$564.64
Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+76.5%+$306.18
Rams vs. Bears: O/U 48.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$388.14
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$299.11
Spread: Rams (-3.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$399
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$253
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+85.2%+$137.62
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$303.33
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$621Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$620.61
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+88.7%+$221.7
Spread: Patriots (-6.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+143.9%+$359.68
Spread: Bears (-4.5)backed Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$394Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+115.7%+$455.86
Spread: Rams (-7.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Rams vs. Falcons: 1H O/U 24.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+47.1%+$27.76
1H Spread: Rams (-3.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$125
Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 43.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$156.24
Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 44.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$150.92
Giants vs. Raiders: O/U 41.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2615.4%4 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.2
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$555Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$555
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$432
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$551Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$551.35
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$734Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$733.57
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Trump visit China by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$438
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick out as US Rep by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.88
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+255%+$719.2
Will Mira Nair be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Bill Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$68
Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.76
Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,270Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+42.4%+$1,385.95
Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+282.5%+$112.98
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$55.24
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT2055%11 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+76.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$216
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$326.39
Hezbollah military action against Israel by March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.8
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,693Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,692.93
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+52.1%+$189.47
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+31.6%+$94.74
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$555Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+60.1%+$333.53
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+77.3%+$231.91
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+316.7%+$194.15
Iran strike on US military by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+582.6%+$267.98
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+414.7%+$497.65
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+141.5%+$120.26
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+211.7%+$137.62
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+476.9%+$992
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$150
All 20 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
College Football — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-69.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$64.75
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+143.9%+$144.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+104.1%+$82.22
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$229
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+163.9%+$559
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$499
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canucks vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$250
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.