TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,934

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes34c2,145$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.572615.4%4 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked No57c1,773$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.154032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid+5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes40c1,742$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes33c1,641$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.252934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+88.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes41c1,362$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.96520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No65c1,129$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.17167.6%48 W · 23 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+41.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed No65c950.96$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.081258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68db…bec8backed No69c690$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No55c511.04$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.4513341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02a…8e83backed Yes47c500$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes46c475.55$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.861414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-13.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x17b4…4d48backed No64c450$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes47c410.81$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c18…de25backed Yes23c409.16$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35c…668bbacked Yes50c399$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes32c393.17$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3410035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58ce…57c4backed Yes50c367$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed Yes44c338$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce4…da39backed Yes46c320$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f62…90a2backed Yes49c319$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes40c299.68$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.873013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac36…1ce4backed No70c290$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057f…94a3backed Yes33c254.77$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc8d…84bcbacked No30c253.38$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.371861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No68c245.83$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.931952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9934…2ceabacked Yes51c220$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No60c207$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.326832.4%22 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b43…ce76backed Yes36c197.93$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed No65c180$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d58…462dbacked No64c175.82$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.02616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked Yes47c174.72$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked No67c168.07$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.978823.9%21 W · 67 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+51.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes29c162$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.982339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Yes43c160$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes15c153.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7841238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.35per pick62cpaid-39.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes30c150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No42c147.33$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.312250%11 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+33.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No51c146.69$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8814935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No73c144.07$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.541118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.31per pick49cpaid-59.9%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes33c139.79$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.741030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No71c128.58$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed No58c126.85$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.53955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+88.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9345…3869backed Yes26c120$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccc5…aaa7backed No72c119.79$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes36c115.53$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7501…9edbbacked Yes51c113.52$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No67c101$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3010135.6%36 W · 65 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes36c99.58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No65c94.85$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.747834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c6…66a2backed Yes26c94.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.651266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9521…9e2bbacked No62c85.88$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.544100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+101%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf093…a4d3backed Yes43c84.26$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x649f…112dbacked Yes24c82.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba55…af02backed No74c81.51$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed Yes51c74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.741127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a18…ded9backed Yes52c72.92$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b7…ee5dbacked No76c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.91241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes37c67.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.30per pick29cpaid+192.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No55c65.89$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.68633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-36.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeb2…376dbacked No74c65.61$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.065100%5 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No70c61.53$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.461833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+113.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf94f…393dbacked Yes49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x584d…1f70backed Yes43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe47b…a081backed No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4397…c3f0backed Yes39c59.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x607a…207ebacked Yes52c58.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x999b…d6debacked No70c58.56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes29c58.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9570%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes26c54.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes31c54.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.833618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe065…d25fbacked No53c51.06$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.851258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.75943.2%3 W · 91 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc70…e75dbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes26c49.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9723543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab69…2283backed Yes39c49.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.02825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-36.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x727e…8b9dbacked No33c48.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.46728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes37c47.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.576459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x243f…97f8backed No67c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No35c43.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.471752.9%9 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick28cpaid+80.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked No56c43.05$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.942516%4 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9223…fb06backed No74c42$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53c2…82e8backed No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e5…63d3backed No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5736…aed1backed No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3191…c919backed No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c54…98cdbacked No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee3…612dbacked No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa08…2b40backed Yes50c37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes29c35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes40c28.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.39560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+90.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed No64c28.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+86.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No70c28.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No54c25.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.58560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No70c25.05$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.483554.3%19 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.