TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9c18…de25

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: NBA, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 58 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$255
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.43
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+86.3%+$68.23
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$1,366.67
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+59.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+89.3%+$178.68
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneylinebacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+132.3%+$66.09
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$139.26
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+359.9%+$359.92
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$283.33
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 205.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.48
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.68
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.68
Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneylinebacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.49
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$79
Celtics vs. Hornetsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$216.67
Hawks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$123.13
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$92.86
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-58.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-4.5)backed Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.13
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)backed Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.25
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked St. John's Red Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.28
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$44.59
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawksbacked St. John's Red Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$95.49
All 5 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauffbacked Coco Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+93.4%+$227.21
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Ann Libacked Ann Li · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$57.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+141.3%+$293.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$63.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.14
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.