TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Crude Oil all time high by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$812,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$895,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $812,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes1c52,342$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94db…a2aabacked Yes3c34,292$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bc…1b57backed Yes9c22,817$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.31450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes1c16,131$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6411734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55db…2031backed Yes6c15,854$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c14,900$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes3c11,637$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.253920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes1c11,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102119%4 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-44.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d7…6f40backed Yes1c9,500$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+106.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x932f…2cd8backed Yes3c9,091$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.93812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf45d…8fd0backed Yes1c8,740$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-73.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe05…6c72backed Yes4c8,013$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb7…5e2abacked Yes2c7,350$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc46…899abacked Yes2c6,602$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.75210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd837…e931backed Yes4c5,320$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes5c5,221$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.97948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9a38backed Yes10c5,021$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c4,800$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38f…3f6ebacked Yes1c4,627$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b50…3bd1backed Yes0c4,567$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5873…db3fbacked Yes9c4,484$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28b1…e538backed Yes1c4,192$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes2c3,960$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79a1…34b5backed Yes25c3,953$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Yes11c3,830$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.146361.9%39 W · 24 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c16…1e6bbacked Yes21c3,486$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fd…4978backed Yes2c3,234$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7017…a205backed Yes4c3,189$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x845a…2ae2backed Yes1c3,010$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a38…d6abbacked Yes3c3,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x571f…0393backed No76c2,823$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66ed…aa53backed Yes4c2,602$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c2,566$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.23765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11f2…0158backed Yes8c2,486$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b55…8c0ebacked Yes2c2,408$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes4c2,348$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004637%17 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,327$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.141,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c2,323$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.292324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…d598backed Yes10c2,220$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.07520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c2,198$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6312126.4%32 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e99…994ebacked Yes12c2,104$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d7…11b2backed Yes7c2,071$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1453517.1%6 W · 29 L-6.5wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-73.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4e65…0f3cbacked Yes15c2,053$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2205810.3%6 W · 52 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9d9…917fbacked Yes2c1,899$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a9d…0a00backed Yes28c1,853$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52070%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes4c1,722$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.96692.9%2 W · 67 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0300…5436backed No75c1,600$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf75f…0988backed Yes1c1,553$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.98326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-81.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c1,549$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.14530%0 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66e2…f317backed Yes3c1,534$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No78c1,508$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.265070%35 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.44per pick18cpaid+296.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf0e2…991bbacked Yes15c1,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67c8…ec9ebacked Yes2c1,458$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes4c1,382$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a0…d806backed Yes11c1,343$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x126d…8993backed Yes15c1,318$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45cd…14ddbacked Yes4c1,254$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+76.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3caa…791bbacked Yes4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26af…ef11backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40da…2fe1backed Yes3c1,227$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes7c1,183$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.621015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2522…fd27backed Yes2c1,178$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1603…00ccbacked Yes20c1,130$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a7…12ddbacked Yes11c1,122$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes4c1,113$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.974520%9 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+72.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4e9…5fecbacked Yes3c1,102$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe37…77c8backed Yes15c1,100$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b05…ea7abacked Yes7c1,092$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.61643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3fa…31ecbacked Yes1c1,071$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd365…5c61backed Yes2c1,044$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca44…450abacked Yes4c1,013$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes7c1,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.02714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-76.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758e…ad1cbacked Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60f…f4b4backed No77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d50…1f5dbacked Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.94650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa890…a743backed No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b9e…510cbacked Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes10c995.52$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.334932.7%16 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab9b…5404backed Yes2c975.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+98.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c914.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.27664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e0…5e15backed Yes26c904.66$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf35…9a45backed Yes2c900$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.62119%4 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fdc…3869backed Yes4c882.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe380…217bbacked Yes3c877.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6469…e385backed Yes9c802.78$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f07…63f3backed Yes16c802.02$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c22…db86backed Yes25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes12c797.69$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3232023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f0…d883backed Yes28c797.03$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da2…f4d7backed Yes2c770.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff3…7f63backed Yes9c768.08$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3df…fe65backed Yes3c743.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-61.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880a…308ebacked Yes10c738.21$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Yes14c721.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-77.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes4c718.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.15840%0 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x815f…a81abacked Yes6c715.69$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e47…57ffbacked Yes8c710.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d0…0c53backed Yes4c708.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.