TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbe37…77c8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 54 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+57.8%+$260.19
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.42
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$60
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$56
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$324
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.7
Military action against Iran ends by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+63.3%+$27.96
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.4%+$29.19
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$169.25
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$21
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$128
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+143.9%+$59
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+376.2%+$118.5
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$11
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+614.3%+$282.57
All 20 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,017Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$425.23
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.9
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
Crude Oil all time high by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick12cpaid+65.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+58.9%+$117.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Joel Álvarez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.