Commodities · resolved market
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x462d6690e064dbd7ee3722658470b9ee1955db208486c7029ecf7871d9e46bf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 13c | 6,168$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.1 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 17c | 4,204$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…6d55backed Yes | 1c | 3,150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 5c | 2,998$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.04 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Yes | 19c | 2,896$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.36 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 12c | 2,210$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.09 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Yes | 2c | 2,070$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 7c | 1,929$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.59 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 10c | 1,681$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 78c | 1,500$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 79c | 1,448$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 71c | 1,399$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.19 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed No | 59c | 1,187$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.45 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…9200backed Yes | 1c | 1,163$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…454fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,005$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 20c | 941.68$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.01 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 4c | 940.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 846.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…ab61backed No | 61c | 834.94$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0df…7c36backed Yes | 3c | 780$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 33c | 624.23$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 15c | 621.41$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4e…6105backed No | 67c | 592.81$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a6…2190backed Yes | 19c | 591.09$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 25c | 550.35$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.81 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab62…af75backed No | 76c | 542.87$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 515$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 30c | 486$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Yes | 6c | 466.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 443.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…b4ebbacked Yes | 19c | 426.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 15c | 421$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x580a…a236backed No | 75c | 400.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 21c | 383.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 18c | 370.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 12c | 334.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 76c | 334.36$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 22c | 332.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4361…873fbacked Yes | 40c | 326.73$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…163fbacked Yes | 6c | 325.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…47f4backed Yes | 17c | 258.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 6c | 237.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 200.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 36c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 77c | 179$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 15c | 171.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…a7e3backed Yes | 8c | 169.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 23c | 160.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe37…77c8backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…8b62backed Yes | 33c | 143.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21de…217bbacked Yes | 13c | 136.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d7…a842backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 12c | 119.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed No | 79c | 115.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed No | 80c | 110.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 18c | 109.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…b1a3backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46dd…a987backed Yes | 14c | 92.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…5cdbbacked Yes | 20c | 89.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…a707backed Yes | 20c | 74.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked No | 41c | 74.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…a450backed Yes | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…8dd6backed Yes | 37c | 68.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 55c | 66.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Yes | 16c | 64.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked No | 78c | 64.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 16c | 62.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c12…3d74backed Yes | 38c | 52.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed No | 49c | 50.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955d…1ec5backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 55c | 48.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 27c | 45.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 74c | 41.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4542…2637backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 67c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…8818backed Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 34c | 36.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 34c | 36.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…e194backed No | 58c | 34.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6999…f83bbacked No | 74c | 33.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09dd…5ca7backed Yes | 38c | 31.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 66c | 30.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d92…68e8backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…bf82backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ed…1db7backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked No | 58c | 19.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0689…5813backed No | 59c | 16.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked No | 80c | 13.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?this page
- Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?Yes won
- Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No won
- Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.